Photo: Thomas Serer / Unsplash
Our Wallabies vs Springboks prediction: South Africa to win, but by a narrower margin than their last two visits to Australia. Rassie Erasmus has made 13 changes after the 3-1 series win over the All Blacks, with Andre Esterhuizen captaining and Siya Kolisi left out of the matchday 23. Australia are unbeaten in five Tests under a new coaching setup and play at home. The Boks still carry more depth and the stronger head-to-head record, so our lean is a Springbok win by 1 to 12 points rather than another runaway result.
Wallabies vs Springboks: Match Overview
This is a one-off Test at Optus Stadium in Perth on Sunday 27 September 2026, kicking off at 17:30 local time (11:30 SAST). Italian referee Andrea Piardi takes charge, and the match is live on SuperSport in South Africa.
With the Rugby Championship shelved for 2026 to make room for the expanded All Blacks tour, this is the only meeting between the two sides this year. It also doubles as a scouting trip: Australia host the Rugby World Cup in 2027, and Erasmus has been open about using Perth to expose more of his squad to Australian conditions before the Boks defend their title.
Form Guide: How Both Teams Arrive
Springboks: Series Winners, Now Rotating
South Africa won Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series against New Zealand 3-1, finishing with a 43-28 win in Baltimore. Their only defeat in the four Tests was a 33-16 loss at Ellis Park. After that physical block, the squad had a few days off and two light training days in Terrigal before starting their normal Test week on Tuesday.
Wallabies: Five Tests Without a Defeat
Australia are unbeaten in their last five Tests. That run started with a 57-10 win over Italy in Perth in Joe Schmidt’s final match in charge, continued with two wins over Japan under new coach Les Kiss (including 56-17 in Townsville), and finished with a series win in Argentina: 27-21 in the first Test and a 28-28 draw in Mendoza. It was Australia’s first series win on Argentinian soil. One caveat worth noting: the Pumas were missing a large number of regular starters for those two Tests.
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Oldest to newest. Springboks: 2026 All Blacks series. Wallabies: Italy, Japan (x2), Argentina (x2).
Head-to-Head: Springboks vs Wallabies
South Africa have won five of their last six Tests against Australia since September 2022. The one defeat stands out: at Ellis Park in August 2025, the Boks led 22-0 before the Wallabies scored 38 unanswered points to win 38-22, Australia’s first win at that ground since 1963. South Africa responded a week later with a 30-22 win in Cape Town, with Handre Pollard kicking 15 points.
| Date | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Cape Town | South Africa 30-22 Australia |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Johannesburg | South Africa 22-38 Australia |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Perth | Australia 12-30 South Africa |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Brisbane | Australia 7-33 South Africa |
| 8 Jul 2023 | Pretoria | South Africa 43-12 Australia |
The 2024 Perth Test is the most useful reference for Sunday. Erasmus made 10 changes from the side that won in Brisbane a week earlier, and the rotated team still won 30-12, scoring four tries to nil in heavy rain in front of 58,197 fans. Malcolm Marx scored twice. Fassi and Marco van Staden also scored, and both start again this weekend.
Team News
Photo: Angel Arcalle / Unsplash
Springboks: 13 Changes and a New Captain
Only lock Eben Etzebeth and wing Ethan Hooker keep their places from the Baltimore win. Andre Esterhuizen becomes the 68th player to captain South Africa and starts at inside centre alongside Canan Moodie. Kolisi is not injured; his absence is part of planned rotation.
Handre Pollard returns at fly-half after missing the Cape Town Test against New Zealand through injury, partnering Herschel Jantjies, who makes his first Test start since November 2021. Franco Mostert is fit again and joins Etzebeth in the second row. Erasmus has picked a 5-3 bench, with first-choice front-rowers Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche and Wilco Louw all among the replacements, and Jasper Wiese set for his 50th cap.
Springboks: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Andre Esterhuizen (c), 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Marco van Staden, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Zachary Porthen, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Jan-Hendrik Wessels. Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Jasper Wiese, 21 Morne van den Berg, 22 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23 Quan Horn.
Full squad details are on the official SA Rugby match centre.
Wallabies: Injury Concern at Fly-Half
Australia had not named their matchday 23 at the time of writing. The main concern is fly-half Carter Gordon, whose injury setback is a blow to the continuity Les Kiss has built. Uncapped Western Force recruit Harry McLaughlin-Phillips has been included in the wider group, a sign of how much the home side values Perth-based players for this Test. We will update this section once the Wallabies team is confirmed.
Key Stats
| Metric | Springboks | Wallabies |
|---|---|---|
| Recent run | 3 wins in last 4 Tests | Unbeaten in 5 (4W, 1D) |
| Last result | Won 43-28 v New Zealand | Drew 28-28 v Argentina |
| Head coach | Rassie Erasmus | Les Kiss |
| Changes to starting XV | 13 | Team not yet named |
| Head-to-head since Sept 2022 | 5 wins | 1 win |
| Last Test in Perth vs each other | Won 30-12 (2024) | Lost 12-30 (2024) |
Wallabies vs Springboks Prediction and Odds
Three factors shape our read:
- Depth is South Africa’s edge. This is not a second-string side. It includes Pollard, Etzebeth, Esterhuizen and Fassi, with a bench of front-rowers who started against the All Blacks. The 2024 Perth result showed that a heavily rotated Bok team can still control a Test in Australia.
- Cohesion is the risk. Thirteen changes, a new captain and a half-back pairing with little Test time together will likely cost some sharpness. Australia’s Ellis Park comeback in 2025 is a reminder of what happens when South Africa lose control of a game.
- Australia are improving but untested. Five unbeaten Tests is real progress, but Italy, Japan and a weakened Argentina are not the Springboks. The Gordon injury also affects their game management.
On balance we expect a South Africa win, most likely by 1 to 12 points, with the Boks’ bench of Marx, Nche and Wilco Louw expected to have a big influence in the final 25 minutes.
Bookmakers had not widely published their Test prices when this preview was written. Before placing anything, check the latest match-winner price and handicap line with a licensed South African bookmaker. Prices can move sharply once the Wallabies name their team.
Betting Tip
Springboks to win by 1-12 points. If the handicap line opens at 13 points or more, the rotation risk makes Wallabies with the start the better-value side of that market. Stake only what you can afford to lose.
Want to see how our picks have performed? Our graded results record shows every hit and miss, published after each round.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is Wallabies vs Springboks on Sunday?
Kick-off is at 11:30 South African time (17:30 in Perth) on Sunday 27 September 2026, at Optus Stadium. It is live on SuperSport in South Africa.
Who is captaining the Springboks against Australia?
Andre Esterhuizen captains South Africa for the first time, starting at inside centre. Siya Kolisi has been left out of the matchday 23 as part of squad rotation, not because of injury.
When did the Wallabies last beat the Springboks?
Australia won 38-22 at Ellis Park on 16 August 2025, coming back from 22-0 down. South Africa have won the other five meetings since September 2022.
Why have the Springboks made so many changes?
Erasmus is managing player workload after the four-Test All Blacks series and giving more of his squad experience in Australia before the 2027 Rugby World Cup there.
Final Verdict
The Wallabies are in their best run of form for some time and will have a strong home crowd behind them, so this should be closer than South Africa’s last two visits to Australia. However, even a much-changed Springbok side has more experienced players, a stronger set piece and a front-row bench that can change the game late. Prediction: Springboks to win by 1-12 points.
This preview is analysis and opinion based on verified team news, results and head-to-head records. It is not a confidence-scored model pick. Those are published separately on our daily predictions page, where every pick is graded in public.