Our Europa League predictions today cover all 17 matchday 4 games on Thursday 5 November 2026: eight kick off at 19:45 SAST and nine at 22:00 SAST. The strongest picks are Benfica at home to Lech Poznan (83 percent), AC Milan at home to Ferencvaros (74 percent) and Bayer Leverkusen at home to Marseille (70 percent). Of the English sides, we lean Sunderland against Dinamo Zagreb (65 percent), Bournemouth at Sparta Prague (64 percent) and, only just, Crystal Palace against Hoffenheim (51 percent). Eleven of the 17 games are close calls under 55 percent, so this is a night to be selective.
Europa League predictions today: all 17 picks
Kick-off times are South African time. Strong means 70 percent and above, good means 55 to 69 percent, and close means under 55 percent.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Our pick | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | AC Milan v Ferencvaros | AC Milan, 74% | Strong |
| 19:45 | Sparta Prague v Bournemouth | Bournemouth, 64% | Good |
| 19:45 | NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia | NEC, 54% | Close |
| 19:45 | Real Sociedad v Lyon | Real Sociedad, 53% | Close |
| 19:45 | Crystal Palace v Hoffenheim | Crystal Palace, 51% | Close |
| 19:45 | Anderlecht v Red Bull Salzburg | Anderlecht, 49% | Close |
| 19:45 | Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia Bialystok | Levski Sofia, 49% | Close |
| 19:45 | Lillestrom v Viktoria Plzen | Viktoria Plzen, 44% | Close |
| 22:00 | Benfica v Lech Poznan | Benfica, 83% | Strong |
| 22:00 | Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille | Leverkusen, 70% | Strong |
| 22:00 | Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb | Sunderland, 65% | Good |
| 22:00 | Sturm Graz v Celje | Sturm Graz, 61% | Good |
| 22:00 | Torreense v Ararat-Armenia | Torreense, 54% | Close |
| 22:00 | AZ Alkmaar v Juventus | Juventus, 49% | Close |
| 22:00 | Hapoel Beer-Sheva v OFI | Hapoel Beer-Sheva, 46% | Close |
| 22:00 | Celtic v Besiktas | Besiktas, 44% | Close |
| 22:00 | Celta Vigo v Union Saint-Gilloise | Celta Vigo, 43% | Close |
| 17 fixtures | Three strong, three good, 11 close |
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How we set the numbers
Each figure is the bookmaker’s implied probability for the named side with the margin removed. We take the 1X2 prices, convert each to a percentage, then scale the three so they add up to 100. For this card we used the best Bet365 and Unibet prices listed by Odds1x2 on 5 November, which leaves a margin of about 4 to 5 percent on every game. Kick-off times and venues are taken from the Sky Sports fixture pages. A pick wins only if the named side wins, so a draw grades as a loss.
19:45 SAST games
AC Milan vs Ferencvaros prediction
Pick: AC Milan, 74 percent (strong). Milan are 1.30, the draw 5.75 and Ferencvaros 10.00. Margin removed, that is Milan 73.7 percent, the draw 16.7 percent and Ferencvaros 9.6 percent.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan.
- Form: Ferencvaros have won all three, nine points, including 2-1 over Viktoria Plzen and 4-1 over Torreense. Milan have three points: they won 4-0 at Salzburg but lost 3-0 at Bournemouth, and lost 4-2 at home to Bologna in Serie A last week.
The price leans on Milan’s reputation more than the table. We follow the market, so this sits in the strong band, but it is the strong pick with the clearest upset case on the night.
Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth prediction
Pick: Bournemouth, 64 percent (good). Sparta are 6.50, the draw 4.50 and Bournemouth 1.50. Margin removed, that is Bournemouth 63.9 percent, the draw 21.3 percent and Sparta 14.8 percent.
- Venue: epet ARENA, Prague.
- Form: Bournemouth have won all three Europa League games, scoring eight and conceding one, including 3-0 home wins over Sturm Graz and AC Milan. They come in on six straight wins in all competitions without conceding. Sparta have four points: a 4-1 win at Ararat-Armenia, a 1-1 home draw with Lillestrom and a 1-0 defeat at Olympiakos.
A first competitive meeting and a long trip, which is why this is good rather than strong. On form, Bournemouth are the right side by a distance.
Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim prediction
Pick: Crystal Palace, 51 percent (close). Palace are 1.88, the draw 4.00 and Hoffenheim 3.75. Margin removed, that is Palace 50.7 percent, Hoffenheim 25.4 percent and the draw 23.8 percent.
- Venue: Selhurst Park, London.
- Form: Palace have four points, but their last two Europa League games were a 3-2 defeat at Lyon and a 2-2 draw at Besiktas. Hoffenheim have three points after losing 3-2 at home to Besiktas and beating Lyon 3-0, and they beat Leverkusen 3-0 in the Bundesliga on 25 October.
Home advantage makes Palace favourites, but Hoffenheim’s recent results make this a lean, not a tip.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction
Pick: Real Sociedad, 53 percent (close). Sociedad are 1.82, the draw 3.90 and Lyon 4.20. Margin removed, that is Sociedad 52.6 percent, the draw 24.6 percent and Lyon 22.8 percent.
- Venue: Reale Seguros Stadium (Anoeta), San Sebastian.
- Form: Sociedad won 6-0 at Lillestrom and drew 1-1 at Union Saint-Gilloise, but lost 2-1 at Athletic Club on Sunday. Lyon have six points, beating Crystal Palace 3-2 and losing 3-0 at Hoffenheim.
Lyon have more points, Sociedad have the home crowd and the better goal difference. The market sides with the hosts, narrowly.
The other four 19:45 games
NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction
Pick: NEC, 54 percent (close). Prices 1.78, 4.20 and 4.10. At Stadion De Goffert, Nijmegen. NEC won 4-2 at Dinamo Zagreb last time out, but have not won in three Eredivisie games. Omonia have six points but lost 4-1 at home to Benfica.
Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction
Pick: Anderlecht, 49 percent (close). Prices 1.96, 3.80 and 3.70. At the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium, Brussels. Anderlecht won 3-0 at Jagiellonia last time. Salzburg lost 4-0 at home to Milan and drew 2-2 at Celje. Salzburg 26 percent and the draw 25 percent, so it is a lean.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok prediction
Pick: Levski Sofia, 49 percent (close). Prices 1.97, 3.65 and 3.80. At the Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sofia. Levski won 2-1 at Viktoria Plzen and drew 1-1 at NEC. Jagiellonia lost 3-0 at home to Anderlecht last time.
Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen prediction
Pick: Viktoria Plzen, 44 percent (close). Prices 3.10, 3.70 and 2.18. At Arasen Stadion, Lillestrom. Plzen have lost all three, yet they are away favourites. Lillestrom have one point and lost 6-0 at home to Real Sociedad last time. The weakest pick in the early slot.
22:00 SAST games
Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction
Pick: Benfica, 83 percent (strong). Benfica are 1.15, the draw 8.00 and Lech 19.00. Margin removed, that is Benfica 83.0 percent, the draw 11.9 percent and Lech 5.0 percent.
- Venue: Estadio da Luz, Lisbon.
- Form: Benfica have won all three, scoring 10 and conceding two, including 4-1 wins over Celtic and away at Omonia. Lech have one point, scoring one and conceding nine, after a 4-0 home defeat to Leverkusen and a 1-1 draw with Sunderland.
The strongest pick of the night, and the biggest gap in quality on the card.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen, 70 percent (strong). Leverkusen are 1.38, the draw 5.50 and Marseille 7.50. Margin removed, that is Leverkusen 69.7 percent, the draw 17.5 percent and Marseille 12.8 percent.
- Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen.
- Form: Leverkusen have nine points, eight goals scored and none conceded. Marseille have no points and one goal, losing 1-0 at home to Olympiakos and 1-0 at Sturm Graz. Leverkusen did lose 3-0 at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on 25 October.
Right on the line between our good and strong bands. Marseille’s league form is far better than their European form, which is the main risk.
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction
Pick: Sunderland, 65 percent (good). Sunderland are 1.48, the draw 4.75 and Dinamo 6.75. Margin removed, that is Sunderland 65.3 percent, the draw 20.4 percent and Dinamo 14.3 percent.
- Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland.
- Form: Sunderland are unbeaten with seven points, including a 2-1 win at Torreense and a 1-1 draw at Lech Poznan. Dinamo have four points and lost 4-2 at home to NEC last time. Sunderland lost 3-1 at Coventry on Saturday.
A home favourite against a side that has just conceded four at home. Good band.
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction
Pick: Juventus, 49 percent (close). AZ are 3.70, the draw 3.75 and Juventus 1.97. Margin removed, that is Juventus 48.6 percent, AZ 25.9 percent and the draw 25.5 percent.
- Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar.
- Form: Juventus are unbeaten on seven points, winning 2-1 at Celta Vigo and drawing 2-2 with Rennes, and they beat Napoli 2-0 on Sunday. AZ have six points from wins over Hapoel Beer-Sheva and Ararat-Armenia, but lost their last two Eredivisie games to Ajax and Twente.
Juventus are the better side on paper, but a trip to Alkmaar keeps this just under 50 percent.
Celtic vs Besiktas prediction
Pick: Besiktas, 44 percent (close). Celtic are 3.10, the draw 3.70 and Besiktas 2.16. Margin removed, that is Besiktas 43.8 percent, Celtic 30.6 percent and the draw 25.6 percent.
- Venue: Celtic Park, Glasgow.
- Form: Celtic have lost all three, including 4-1 at Benfica and 2-1 at home to Celta Vigo, and lost 2-0 at Falkirk on Sunday. Besiktas are unbeaten on seven points, with a 3-2 win at Hoffenheim and a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace.
The market makes the away side favourite at Celtic Park, which says a lot about Celtic’s form. Still a lean, not a tip.
The other four 22:00 games
Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
Pick: Sturm Graz, 61 percent (good). Prices 1.56, 4.33 and 5.75. At UPC-Arena, Graz. Sturm beat Marseille 1-0 in their last home European game. Celje have one point and no win. Sturm have not won in three domestic games, which keeps this in the good band.
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
Pick: Torreense, 54 percent (close). Prices 1.75, 3.80 and 4.60. At Estadio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa, Leiria. Ararat have lost all three and conceded 11. Torreense have lost their last two European games, so even this pick is close.
Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs OFI prediction
Pick: Hapoel Beer-Sheva, 46 percent (close). Prices 2.10, 3.75 and 3.40. Sky Sports lists the venue as Stadionul Rapid-Giulesti in Bucharest, so Hapoel’s home advantage is limited. Hapoel have one point and lost 4-0 at Union Saint-Gilloise. OFI have won their last two Greek league games, including 2-1 over PAOK.
Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise prediction
Pick: Celta Vigo, 43 percent (close). Prices 2.25, 3.60 and 3.20. At Estadio Abanca-Balaidos, Vigo. Union are unbeaten on seven points with eight goals scored and one conceded. Celta have three points and lost 3-0 at Rayo Vallecano on Saturday. The weakest pick on the card.
Betting angles for the closer games
Eleven picks tonight are close calls. If you would rather cover the draw, these are the double chance figures for the five closest, from the same margin-removed prices. They are not our graded picks, and they pay less. Read what double chance costs before you use them.
| Fixture | Our pick | Pick or draw |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar v Juventus | Juventus, 49% | Juventus or draw, about 74% |
| Hapoel Beer-Sheva v OFI | Hapoel, 46% | Hapoel or draw, about 72% |
| Celta Vigo v Union Saint-Gilloise | Celta, 43% | Celta or draw, about 70% |
| Celtic v Besiktas | Besiktas, 44% | Besiktas or draw, about 69% |
| Lillestrom v Viktoria Plzen | Plzen, 44% | Plzen or draw, about 69% |
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Our record by confidence band
We publish a confidence figure with every pick and grade all of them in public, losses included. These figures update automatically from our graded results log.
| Band | Live record | Tonight’s picks in this band |
|---|---|---|
| Strong (70% and above) | 43W-10L (81%) | Benfica, AC Milan, Leverkusen |
| Good (55 to 69%) | 83W-44L (65%) | Sunderland, Bournemouth, Sturm Graz |
| Close (under 55%) | 73W-76L (49%) | NEC, Torreense, Real Sociedad, Crystal Palace, Anderlecht, Levski, Juventus, Hapoel Beer-Sheva, Besiktas, Viktoria Plzen, Celta Vigo |
| Overall | 199 wins from 329 graded picks (60%) | 17 picks |
Europa League predictions FAQs
What time are the Europa League games today in South Africa?
Eight games kick off at 19:45 SAST, including AC Milan v Ferencvaros, Sparta Prague v Bournemouth and Crystal Palace v Hoffenheim. The other nine, including Benfica v Lech Poznan, AZ Alkmaar v Juventus and Celtic v Besiktas, kick off at 22:00 SAST on Thursday 5 November 2026.
What is your safest Europa League pick today?
Benfica to beat Lech Poznan at home, at 83 percent. AC Milan (74 percent) and Leverkusen (70 percent) are the other strong picks. No pick is guaranteed.
What is your Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth prediction?
Bournemouth to win, at 64 percent, a good pick. The draw is about 21 percent and Sparta about 15 percent.
What is your AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction?
Juventus to win, at 49 percent, a close call. AZ and the draw are both about 26 percent.
What is your Celtic vs Besiktas prediction?
Besiktas to win, at 44 percent, a close call. Celtic are about 31 percent and the draw about 26 percent.
How did your Champions League picks do this week?
Fifteen of 18 won across matchday 4: eight of nine on Tuesday and seven of nine on Wednesday.
Final verdict
Benfica, AC Milan and Leverkusen are the picks to trust most tonight, with Milan the one to watch for an upset against an unbeaten Ferencvaros. Sunderland, Bournemouth and Sturm Graz are good picks. Treat the other 11 as leans, and if you want to cover the draw, start with the five in the angles table. For the full fixture list and results as they come in, see UEFA’s Europa League fixtures and results page.
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Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.