FULL-TIME: South Africa 2-1 Guinea (HT 1-0), AFCON 2027 Qualifier, Group D, Orlando Amstel Arena, 26 September 2026
Goals: Ime Okon 30′ (SA), Seydouba Cissé 69′ (GUI), Kabini 77′ (SA)
How our picks did: ✅ South Africa to win (58% pick), WON | ❌ 1-0 correct score, LOST | ❌ Double Chance (SA or Draw) + Under 2.5 Goals, LOST (three goals scored)
Match Result & Review
Pitso Mosimane’s second spell in charge of Bafana Bafana started with three points. South Africa beat Guinea 2-1 in Soweto to open their Group D campaign, and our headline call, a home win, landed. The goals market did not: we expected a tight, low-scoring game and it finished with three goals, so our recommended bet builder lost.
First half: South Africa controlled the ball and the chances. Relebohile Mofokeng should have scored inside ten minutes after going through one-on-one, but sent his effort wide. The breakthrough came on 30 minutes, when centre-back Ime Okon reacted first to a loose ball in the box and finished from close range. Teboho Mokoena then forced a good save from Soumaila Sylla with a long-range strike, and Guinea’s main threat, Serhou Guirassy, barely touched the ball before the break.
Second half: Guinea grew into the game and equalised through Seydouba Cissé on 69 minutes, which is exactly the counter-attacking risk we flagged in our preview. South Africa’s response was quick. On 77 minutes, substitute Kabini ran onto a pass from fellow replacement Yanela Mbuthuma on the left and squeezed the ball past Sylla to restore the lead. Guinea had one more big moment late on, a dangerous cross that flashed across the six-yard box with nobody attacking it, but Bafana held on.
What we got right and wrong: The shape of the match matched our read for an hour, with South Africa on top and Guinea struggling to create. Where we got it wrong was the total goals. Guinea’s equaliser forced the game open, and Mosimane’s substitutes then won it. It’s a useful reminder that Under 2.5 is vulnerable in any game where the favourite leads by just one goal and the underdog has a striker capable of punishing lapses. We have graded this pick honestly in our records: match result correct, goals market incorrect.
What’s next: South Africa complete this international window with a second Group D qualifier against Eritrea on 30 September. See our Bafana Bafana fixtures page for every upcoming match, and our AFCON 2027 Group D guide for what this result means for qualification.
Our Original Pre-Match Preview
The preview below was published before kickoff and is left unchanged so you can see exactly what we predicted.
Bafana Bafana open their 2027 AFCON qualifying campaign at home to Guinea on Saturday, and our model backs a narrow South Africa win, but with goals hard to come by, the smarter value may sit in the underlying markets rather than a straight moneyline bet.
Match Overview
South Africa host Guinea in Group D of 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying on Saturday, 26 September 2026, kicking off 15:00 SAST (13:00 GMT) at Orlando Amstel Arena, Johannesburg. It’s a significant opener: with Kenya already through, only one more automatic qualification spot is up for grabs between South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea, making an early setback costly for either side. It also marks new coach Pitso Mosimane’s first competitive match in charge of Bafana Bafana.
Form Guide
- South Africa are unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 home matches, but attacking output has been a concern, they scored only twice in four matches at the 2026 World Cup, where they went out in the Round of 32.
- Guinea arrive out of form: winless in 5 of their last 6 games, including back-to-back defeats.
Head-to-Head
The sides have met sparingly in recent years. The most recent clash, a 2025 African Nations Championship group game, went South Africa’s way, 2-1.
Injury News
South Africa: Mosimane’s squad shows defensive gaps, with Mbekezeli Mbokazi and Khuliso Mudau both out through injury. Reports ahead of kickoff also list first-choice attacking options Lyle Foster and Evidence Makgopa as unavailable. Cyprus-based Luther Singh returns for his first Bafana call-up in five years.
Guinea: Borussia Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy leads the line and remains the game’s biggest individual threat, he scored six goals in qualifying for the previous AFCON. Former Barcelona midfielder Ilaix Moriba is included, though experienced midfielder Naby Keïta is absent.
Key Stats
| Stat | South Africa | Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| Odds to win | ~1.87–1.91 | ~4.30–4.50 |
| Draw odds | ~3.05–3.20 | |
| Recent form (last 6) | Unbeaten in 5 | Winless in 5 |
| H2H last meeting | Won 2-1 | Lost 2-1 |
Odds are indicative and will move before kickoff, always check current prices with your bookmaker.
Prediction & Odds
Our model rates this a 58% confidence pick for South Africa, filed under “Good pick” rather than “Strong,” reflecting Guinea’s counter-attacking threat through Guirassy and the tightness of a low-stakes-feeling opener that both sides will likely approach cautiously. Multiple independent previews converge on the same shape: a narrow home win, most commonly forecast 1-0.
Betting Tip
Given how low-scoring recent meetings between these sides have been, South Africa or Draw (Double Chance) combined with Under 2.5 Goals looks like the more resilient angle than backing South Africa to win outright, it protects against the draw that a cagey opener like this can easily produce, while still capturing the shape of the match.
👉 See odds for Bafana Bafana’s next match at Hollywoodbets, 18+, bet responsibly.
FAQ
What was the final score in South Africa vs Guinea?
South Africa won 2-1. Ime Okon scored on 30 minutes, Seydouba Cissé equalised for Guinea on 69 minutes, and Kabini scored the winner on 77 minutes.
Is South Africa favourite to beat Guinea?
Yes, South Africa are priced around 1.90 at home, with Guinea out at roughly 4.40, reflecting home advantage and Guinea’s recent poor form.
Will Lyle Foster play for South Africa vs Guinea?
Pre-match reports have Foster left out of Mosimane’s squad for this fixture, alongside fellow forward Evidence Makgopa.
Is Serhou Guirassy playing for Guinea?
Yes, the Borussia Dortmund striker is expected to lead Guinea’s attack and is their standout individual threat.
Where is South Africa vs Guinea being played?
Orlando Amstel Arena in Johannesburg, kicking off 15:00 SAST / 13:00 GMT on Saturday, 26 September 2026.
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