Our Champions League predictions for matchday 4 cover all nine games on Tuesday 3 November 2026. Two kick off at 19:45 SAST and seven at 22:00 SAST. The strongest pick is Barcelona at home to Aston Villa, 76 percent, even though Villa arrive with a perfect record. Next come LASK against Slovan Bratislava at 66 percent and PSG away at Villarreal at 59 percent. The headline game, Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich, is a close call: we lean Bayern at 41 percent. Five of the nine picks are under 55 percent, so this is a softer card than matchday 3.
Champions League predictions tonight: all nine picks
Kick-off times are South African time. Strong means 70 percent and above, good means 55 to 69 percent, and close means under 55 percent.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Our pick | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP | Sporting CP, 47% | Close |
| 19:45 | Galatasaray v Stuttgart | Galatasaray, 44% | Close |
| 22:00 | Barcelona v Aston Villa | Barcelona, 76% | Strong |
| 22:00 | Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich, 41% | Close |
| 22:00 | Manchester United v Roma | Manchester United, 41% | Close |
| 22:00 | Villarreal v PSG | PSG, 59% | Good |
| 22:00 | Feyenoord v Inter | Inter, 55% | Good |
| 22:00 | Bodo/Glimt v Lille | Bodo/Glimt, 51% | Close |
| 22:00 | LASK v Slovan Bratislava | LASK, 66% | Good |
| Nine fixtures | One strong, three good, five close |
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How we set the numbers
Each figure is the bookmaker’s implied probability for the named side with the margin removed. We take the 1X2 prices, convert each to a percentage, then scale the three so they add up to 100. For every game tonight we used the Tonybet prices listed by RG on 1 November, so the whole card comes from one book with a margin of about 6 percent. We checked them against Ladbrokes prices published this morning, and no favourite has changed. A pick wins only if the named side wins, so a draw grades as a loss.
19:45 games: Shakhtar v Sporting and Galatasaray v Stuttgart
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP prediction
Pick: Sporting CP, 47 percent (close). Tonybet prices Shakhtar at 3.50, the draw at 3.65 and Sporting at 1.99. With the margin removed that is Sporting 47.3 percent, Shakhtar 26.9 percent and the draw 25.8 percent.
- Form: Sporting beat Galatasaray and won at Lens, then lost 3-2 at home to LASK on matchday 3, a game we picked them to win at 75 percent. Shakhtar have four points: a 1-1 draw with PSV, a 3-1 win over AEK and a 1-0 defeat at Inter.
- Team news: we could not confirm new absentees for either side from the previews we checked. Luis Suarez has four Champions League goals for Sporting.
Shakhtar’s three games have produced two, four and one goals. That, and a draw priced at 26 percent, is why Sporting are a close call and not a good pick.
Galatasaray vs Stuttgart prediction
Pick: Galatasaray, 44 percent (close). Tonybet has Galatasaray at 2.17, the draw at 3.85 and Stuttgart at 2.95. Margin removed, that is Galatasaray 43.5 percent, Stuttgart 32.0 percent and the draw 24.5 percent.
- Form: Galatasaray lost 3-1 at Sporting and 4-1 at home to Barcelona, then won 4-2 at Lille. Stuttgart are sixth on seven points with two wins and a 1-1 draw against Atletico, and Ermedin Demirovic has four goals.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
The market makes the home side favourite, but Galatasaray have conceded nine in three games and Stuttgart have the better record. Several previews we read prefer Stuttgart. We follow the price, so the pick is Galatasaray, and it is a lean, not a tip.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa prediction
Pick: Barcelona, 76 percent (strong). Tonybet prices Barcelona at 1.24, the draw at 7.00 and Villa at 9.20. With the margin removed that is Barcelona 76.2 percent, the draw 13.5 percent and Villa 10.3 percent. It is the strongest pick on the card.
- Form: Villa have won all three, 3-2 at Club Brugge, 6-0 against Fenerbahce and 3-1 against Viking, scoring 12 and conceding three. Barcelona beat Feyenoord 5-1 and won 4-1 at Galatasaray, then lost 4-2 at PSG.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed. Lamine Yamal has four assists in the competition, and Nicolas Jackson and Ross Barkley have three goals each for Villa.
Villa sit second in the table and Barcelona eighth, so 76 percent will look generous to Villa fans. The price reflects Camp Nou. Both sides have been in high-scoring games: if you would rather not back a short favourite, goals markets are where most previews are looking tonight.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction
Pick: Bayern Munich, 41 percent (close). Tonybet has Atletico at 2.75, the draw at 3.90 and Bayern at 2.28. Margin removed, that is Bayern 41.4 percent, Atletico 34.3 percent and the draw 24.2 percent.
- Form: Bayern are unbeaten but have stalled, a 5-0 win over Bodo/Glimt followed by a 3-3 draw at Viking and a 2-2 draw with Arsenal. Atletico lost 2-1 at Liverpool, beat Manchester United 2-0 and drew 1-1 at Stuttgart.
- Team news: no fresh absences have been reported for either side. Harry Kane has four Champions League goals.
Bayern have drawn their last two, and our 44 percent pick on them against Arsenal on matchday 3 was one of those draws. Treat this as a lean on the away side with a live draw.
Manchester United vs Roma prediction
Pick: Manchester United, 41 percent (close). Tonybet prices United at 2.31, the draw at 3.85 and Roma at 2.75. With the margin removed that is United 41.0 percent, Roma 34.4 percent and the draw 24.6 percent.
- Form: United beat Sabah 4-0, then lost 2-0 at Atletico and 4-1 at Como. Roma drew 1-1 at Fenerbahce, lost 4-3 to Real Madrid and beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0. Donyell Malen has three goals and two assists.
- Team news: we could not confirm new absentees for either side.
United have conceded six in their last two European games and are favourites mainly because of Old Trafford. This is one of the weakest favourites on the card.
Villarreal vs PSG prediction
Pick: PSG, 59 percent (good). Tonybet has Villarreal at 4.60, the draw at 4.60 and PSG at 1.60. Margin removed, that is PSG 59.0 percent, with Villarreal and the draw at 20.5 percent each.
- Form: PSG top the table with nine points and 14 goals, including 4-2 wins over Manchester City and Barcelona. Villarreal beat Napoli 3-1 but lost 3-2 at Dortmund and 4-3 at Liverpool.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed. Ousmane Dembele has three goals and three assists.
PSG have scored at least four in every game, and Villarreal’s three games have had five, four and seven goals. The away win is the pick, but expect goals at both ends.
Feyenoord vs Inter prediction
Pick: Inter, 55 percent (good). Tonybet prices Feyenoord at 4.10, the draw at 4.20 and Inter at 1.73. With the margin removed that is Inter 54.5 percent, Feyenoord 23.0 percent and the draw 22.5 percent, right on the line between our good and close bands.
- Form: Inter lost to Real Madrid and Club Brugge before beating Shakhtar 1-0 on matchday 3. Feyenoord lost 5-1 at Barcelona and 1-0 at Real Betis, and beat Como 3-2 at home.
- Team news: we could not confirm new absentees for either side.
Inter have one win from three and Feyenoord’s only win came in Rotterdam. This sits at the very bottom of our good band.
Bodo/Glimt vs Lille prediction
Pick: Bodo/Glimt, 51 percent (close). Tonybet has Bodo/Glimt at 1.85, the draw at 3.90 and Lille at 3.80. Margin removed, that is Bodo/Glimt 51.0 percent, Lille 24.8 percent and the draw 24.2 percent.
- Form: Lille have no points and have conceded at least three goals in every game, most recently a 4-2 home defeat by Galatasaray. Bodo/Glimt lost 5-0 at Bayern, beat Dortmund 1-0 at home and lost 4-3 at Napoli.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
Bodo/Glimt have already beaten Dortmund at home this season. A coin flip on the home side, with Lille’s defence the reason it leans this way.
LASK vs Slovan Bratislava prediction
Pick: LASK, 66 percent (good). Tonybet prices LASK at 1.44, the draw at 4.90 and Slovan at 6.20. With the margin removed that is LASK 65.5 percent, the draw 19.3 percent and Slovan 15.2 percent.
- Form: LASK lost their first two, including 6-3 to Liverpool, then won 3-2 at Sporting. Slovan have lost all three, scoring once and conceding 13.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
Slovan are bottom of the 36-team table. LASK at home are the second-strongest pick tonight, but they had lost two in a row before Lisbon.
Betting angles for the closer games
Five of tonight’s picks are close calls. If you would rather cover the draw, these are the double chance figures from the same margin-removed prices. They are not our graded picks, and they pay less. Read what double chance costs before you use them.
| Fixture | Our pick | Pick or draw |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich | Bayern, 41% | Bayern or draw, about 66% |
| Manchester United v Roma | Manchester United, 41% | United or draw, about 66% |
| Galatasaray v Stuttgart | Galatasaray, 44% | Galatasaray or draw, about 68% |
| Shakhtar v Sporting CP | Sporting, 47% | Sporting or draw, about 73% |
| Bodo/Glimt v Lille | Bodo/Glimt, 51% | Bodo/Glimt or draw, about 75% |
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Our record by confidence band
We publish a confidence figure with every pick and grade all of them in public, losses included. These figures update automatically from our graded results log.
| Band | Live record | Tonight’s picks in this band |
|---|---|---|
| Strong (70% and above) | 42W-10L (81%) | Barcelona |
| Good (55 to 69%) | 80W-44L (65%) | LASK, PSG, Inter |
| Close (under 55%) | 69W-75L (48%) | Bodo/Glimt, Sporting, Galatasaray, Bayern, Manchester United |
| Overall | 191 wins from 320 graded picks (60%) | Nine picks |
Champions League predictions FAQs
What time are the Champions League games tonight in South Africa?
Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP and Galatasaray v Stuttgart kick off at 19:45 SAST. The other seven games, including Barcelona v Aston Villa, Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich and Manchester United v Roma, kick off at 22:00 SAST on Tuesday 3 November 2026.
What is your safest Champions League pick tonight?
Barcelona to beat Aston Villa, at 76 percent. It is the highest margin-removed probability on the card. No pick is guaranteed.
What is your Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction?
Bayern Munich to win, at 41 percent, which is a close call. Atletico are about 34 percent and the draw about 24 percent. Bayern or the draw is about 66 percent.
What is your Barcelona vs Aston Villa prediction?
Barcelona to win, at 76 percent. Villa are about 10 percent and the draw about 14 percent, even though Villa have won all three league phase games.
What is your Manchester United vs Roma prediction?
Manchester United to win, at 41 percent, a close call. Roma are about 34 percent and the draw about 25 percent.
Which Champions League games are on Wednesday?
Matchday 4 finishes on Wednesday 4 November, including AEK Athens v Real Madrid and Fenerbahce v Liverpool at 19:45 SAST.
Final verdict
Barcelona against Aston Villa is the pick to trust most tonight. LASK and PSG are good picks, and Inter only just qualifies. Treat Atletico v Bayern, Manchester United v Roma, Galatasaray v Stuttgart, Shakhtar v Sporting and Bodo/Glimt v Lille as leans. For the full fixture list and results as they come in, see UEFA’s fixtures and results page.
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Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.