Group D of AFCON 2027 qualifying is South Africa, Guinea, Kenya and Eritrea, and only one of South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea will reach the finals, because Kenya are already qualified as co-hosts. South Africa’s next Group D match is Eritrea v South Africa in Cairo on Wednesday 30 September 2026, kick-off 18:00 SAST. They opened Group D of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers by beating Guinea 2-1 at Orlando Stadium on Saturday 26 September, in Pitso Mosimane’s first competitive match back in charge. Ime Okon and Kabini scored for Bafana either side of a Guinea equaliser from Seydouba Cissé. Our pick for that match, a South Africa win at 58% confidence, landed. Read the full South Africa vs Guinea result and review.
South Africa’s Group D schedule
These are South Africa’s six Group D qualifiers, plus the Egypt friendly played during the same trip, as published by the South African Football Association and checked on 22 September 2026. For every Bafana match with kick-off times and our latest picks, including friendlies, see our Bafana Bafana fixtures hub, which we keep up to date through the campaign.
Venues and kick-off times for the November and March matches are still to be confirmed.
| Date | Fixture | Competition | Venue | Kick-off (SAST) / Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 26 Sep 2026 | South Africa v Guinea | AFCON 2027 qualifier, Group D MD1 | Orlando Stadium, Soweto | WON 2-1 |
| Wed 30 Sep 2026 | Eritrea v South Africa | AFCON 2027 qualifier, Group D MD2 | Al-Salam Stadium, Cairo | 18:00 |
| Sun 4 Oct 2026 | Egypt v South Africa | International friendly | Cairo International Stadium | To be confirmed |
| Fri 13 Nov 2026 | South Africa v Kenya | AFCON 2027 qualifier | To be confirmed | 18:00 |
| Tue 17 Nov 2026 | Kenya v South Africa | AFCON 2027 qualifier | To be confirmed | To be confirmed |
| Fri 26 Mar 2027 | Guinea v South Africa | AFCON 2027 qualifier | To be confirmed | To be confirmed |
| Tue 30 Mar 2027 | South Africa v Eritrea | AFCON 2027 qualifier | To be confirmed | To be confirmed |
The Eritrea fixture is listed as an away match but is being played in Cairo, which is standard practice for Eritrea’s home qualifiers. South Africa then stay in Egypt for the friendly on 4 October, so this is a three-match trip built around one home game.
Group D, and the qualification maths nobody explains
Group D contains South Africa, Guinea, Kenya and Eritrea. Kenya are co-hosts of the 2027 tournament and are already qualified, which changes what the group is actually for. The practical effect is that South Africa and Guinea are competing for one place, with Eritrea as the group’s outsider and Kenya’s results a complication rather than a contest.
| Team | Status | What they need |
|---|---|---|
| Kenya | Already qualified as co-hosts | Nothing. Playing for form and pride. |
| South Africa | Contender | Finish above Guinea. Beat Guinea 2-1 on Matchday 1, so the head-to-head edge is theirs for now. Home points against Kenya are next. |
| Guinea | Contender | Lost 2-1 in Soweto on Matchday 1. The home tie against South Africa in March is now close to must-win. |
| Eritrea | Outsider | Points from anywhere. Both their home ties are being played in Cairo. |
Matchday 1 is completed by Kenya v Eritrea on the same Saturday. Guinea host Kenya on 1 October at the 28 September Stadium in Conakry, recently approved by CAF for international fixtures again.
Mosimane’s first competitive test
SAFA confirmed Pitso Mosimane as head coach at the start of September 2026, replacing Hugo Broos, who left after the World Cup. Mosimane named a preliminary squad on 4 September and cut it to a final 30 on 17 September.
The squad leans heavily on the group that reached the second round of the 2026 World Cup. Ronwen Williams stays in goal, Teboho Mokoena anchors the midfield, and the forward options include Cassius Mailula and Yanela Mbuthuma. The notable omission is Lyle Foster. Mosimane explained it in plain terms, saying he had spoken to the player personally, that Foster had not been playing, was not on the team sheet, had managed only a few minutes here and there, and had moved club. Five further players were unavailable through injury.
A new coach in his first competitive fixture is a genuine modelling problem, and we would rather say so than pretend otherwise. We have no graded picks under Mosimane. Everything we know about how this side sets up comes from a different manager.
What Guinea bring to Soweto
Guinea, coached by Paulo Duarte, named a 25-man squad for the South Africa and Kenya fixtures: three goalkeepers, ten defenders, five midfielders and seven forwards.
The name that matters is Serhou Guirassy. He has started the season at Borussia Dortmund with four goals and two assists in his first five matches, and he is the single biggest reason this fixture is not a comfortable home banker. Around him, Seydouba Cisse and Moriba Kourouma give Guinea a midfield that can hold the ball in a hostile stadium, and Lamine Diaby-Fadiga and Yadaly Diaby give Duarte options to change the shape of the game late.
A Guinea side with a striker in that form, away from home, against a team under a brand new coach, is exactly the shape of fixture that produces the result nobody priced.
Our pick, and the honest confidence behind it
Before kick-off, we were on South Africa to win at 58%. That is a good pick on our scale, not a strong one, and the difference is not decoration. Here is what our published record says those bands are actually worth.
| Confidence band | Record | Strike rate |
|---|---|---|
| Strong, 70% and above | 19W-3L | 86% |
| Good, 55% to 69% | 33W-17L | 66% |
| Close call, under 55% | 27W-35L | 44% |
| All graded picks | 79W-55L | 59% |
So a 58% pick from us has historically landed about two times in three. That is a real edge and it is not a certainty, and the gap between those two sentences is where most tipster sites go quiet.
Where our record is strong, and where it is not
If you are deciding how much weight to give any source on an African qualifier, look at the competition split before you look at the headline number.
| Competition | Record | Strike rate |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League | 16W-4L | 80% |
| Serie A | 14W-5L | 74% |
| La Liga | 15W-9L | 62% |
| Bundesliga | 9W-7L | 56% |
| MLS | 10W-11L | 48% |
| Betway Premiership | 6W-7L | 46% |
| Premier League | 9W-11L | 45% |
| AFCON qualifiers | 1W-0L (South Africa v Guinea) | Opened 26 Sep 2026, too few picks to rate |
Our best work is in competitions where the gap between the two sides is wide and stable. Our worst is in leagues where anyone can beat anyone, which is exactly what the Betway Premiership and Premier League rows are telling us, and exactly the risk profile of an AFCON qualifier. Treat the 58% as a real number with a wide error bar around it.
How to watch Eritrea v South Africa
SAFA has previously granted AFCON qualifier broadcast rights to the SABC, which carried past matches on SABC 3, SABC+ and SABCSport.com. We have not seen a confirmed broadcaster for the Eritrea match in Cairo on 30 September, so check SABC Sport listings closer to kick-off rather than trusting a schedule published in advance.
Keep reading
- Football betting tips today, our daily board with a confidence level on every pick
- Bet of the day, the single pick we rate highest, including the days we decline to name one
- Sundowns v Pirates and the Betway Premiership title race, where most of this squad plays its club football
- Draw no bet, explained, because 31 of our 55 losing picks finished level rather than lost
- How our accuracy fell to 57%, an example of us publishing a bad round in full
- Today’s full prediction board
Written by Carlson Dze Meh. Fixture details verified against SAFA and CAF listings on 22 September 2026; South Africa v Guinea result added 26 September 2026. Record figures are our own published graded record, current to 21 September 2026 except where noted.