Full time: Champions League results and how our picks graded
Five of our nine Champions League picks won on Tuesday night, 56 percent. The two biggest results went against us: Club Brugge won 4-3 at Inter, and Viking came from 3-2 down to draw 3-3 with Bayern Munich in the 90th minute. Our rule is that a pick wins only if the named side wins, so the Bayern draw counts as a loss. The close calls did better than the strong picks: three of five close calls won, against two of four strong picks.
| Fixture | Full time | Our pick | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens v Sporting CP | 0-2 | Lens, 39% | LOSS |
| Sabah v Slavia Prague | 2-0 | Slavia Prague, 49% | LOSS |
| Atletico Madrid v Manchester United | 2-0 | Atletico Madrid, 49% | WIN |
| Arsenal v Lille | 3-0 | Arsenal, 79% | WIN |
| Galatasaray v Barcelona | 1-4 | Barcelona, 75% | WIN |
| Inter v Club Brugge | 3-4 | Inter, 77% | LOSS |
| Villarreal v Napoli | 3-1 | Villarreal, 44% | WIN |
| RB Leipzig v PSV | 1-0 | RB Leipzig, 54% | WIN |
| Viking v Bayern Munich | 3-3 | Bayern Munich, 85% | LOSS (draw) |
| Nine picks | Strong 2 of 4, close 3 of 5 | 5W-4L, 56% |
What decided the night
- Inter 3-4 Club Brugge. Brugge led four times, at 1-0 on 30 minutes, 2-1 on 63, 3-1 on 74 and 4-2 on 87. Inter had 27 shots, 12 of them on target, and still lost. This was the biggest miss of the night: a 77 percent pick, and the market had Brugge at under 9 percent.
- Viking 3-3 Bayern Munich. Viking were 2-0 up after 38 minutes. Bayern scored on 54, 60 and 71 minutes to lead 3-2, then had a player sent off for a second yellow card, and Viking equalised in the 90th minute. Bayern had 28 shots to Viking’s 8.
- Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester United. Atletico scored in the first minute. United had a player sent off on 74 minutes, and Atletico added the second on 79.
- Villarreal 3-1 Napoli. Napoli scored first on 8 minutes, then Villarreal scored twice in three minutes, on 23 and 26, and added a third on 86. A 44 percent close call that won.
- Sabah 2-0 Slavia Prague. Goals on 49 and 88 minutes. Slavia’s run without a Champions League win, qualifiers excluded, is now 21 games. Tomas Vlcek, reported as out before the game, started for Slavia.
- Arsenal 3-0 Lille, Galatasaray 1-4 Barcelona and RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV all went as picked. Sporting won 2-0 at Lens, so our 39 percent lean on the most even game of the night lost.
On the draw-cover angles listed further down, three of the five double chance options won (Atletico, Villarreal and Leipzig, all of which won outright) and two lost (Lens and Slavia). The preview below is unchanged from before kick-off, so you can see exactly what we said.
Our Champions League predictions tonight cover all nine matchday 2 games on Tuesday 13 October 2026. Two kick off at 18:45 SAST and seven at 21:00 SAST. The strongest pick on the card is Bayern Munich away at Viking, 85 percent, followed by Arsenal against Lille at 79 percent, Inter against Club Brugge at 77 percent and Barcelona at Galatasaray at 75 percent. The headline game, Atletico Madrid v Manchester United, is a close call: Atletico at 49 percent. Five of the nine picks are under 55 percent, so most of tonight is close.
Champions League predictions tonight: all nine picks
Kick-off times are South African time. Strong means 70 percent and above, good means 55 to 69 percent, and close means under 55 percent.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Venue | Our pick | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:45 | Lens v Sporting CP | Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens | Lens, 39% | Close |
| 18:45 | Sabah v Slavia Prague | Baku Olympic Stadium | Slavia Prague, 49% | Close |
| 21:00 | Atletico Madrid v Manchester United | Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid | Atletico Madrid, 49% | Close |
| 21:00 | Arsenal v Lille | Emirates Stadium, London | Arsenal, 79% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Galatasaray v Barcelona | Rams Park, Istanbul | Barcelona, 75% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Inter v Club Brugge | San Siro, Milan | Inter, 77% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal | Villarreal, 44% | Close |
| 21:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV | Red Bull Arena, Leipzig | RB Leipzig, 54% | Close |
| 21:00 | Viking v Bayern Munich | Norway (stadium not confirmed by our sources) | Bayern Munich, 85% | Strong |
| Nine fixtures | Four strong, five close |
How we set the numbers
Each figure is the bookmaker’s implied probability for the favourite with the margin removed. We take the 1X2 prices, convert each to a percentage, then scale the three so they add up to 100. The source for each game is named in its section. Prices were checked at midday on 13 October and will move before kick-off. A pick wins only if the named side wins, so a draw grades as a loss.
18:45 games: Lens v Sporting and Sabah v Slavia Prague
Lens v Sporting CP prediction
Pick: Lens, 39 percent (close). This is the most even game of the night. Stake prices Lens at 2.45, the draw at 3.75 and Sporting at 2.65, which gives Lens 38.8 percent, the draw 25.3 percent and Sporting 35.9 percent once the margin is removed.
- Form: both won on matchday 1. Lens won 3-2 at Slavia Prague with two late goals, and Sporting beat Galatasaray 3-1. Sporting are unbeaten this season and won 3-1 at Braga at the weekend. Lens beat Lyon 2-1.
- Team news: Lens are without Jhoanner Chavez, Maik Nawrocki and Abdallah Sima. Sporting’s Rodrigo Zalazar picked up a knock against Braga and is a doubt, and Nuno Santos could also miss out.
Sabah v Slavia Prague prediction
Pick: Slavia Prague, 49 percent (close). The best prices listed by SportyTrader, mostly from 1xbet, are Sabah 3.78, draw 3.90 and Slavia 2.02. That works out to Slavia 48.7 percent, the draw 25.2 percent and Sabah 26.0 percent.
- Form: both lost on matchday 1. Sabah lost 4-0 at Manchester United, and Slavia lost 3-2 at home to Lens. Slavia have won four league games in a row, but they have not won any of their last 20 Champions League matches, qualifiers excluded.
- Team news: Slavia are without Tomas Vlcek, David Jurasek and Ivan Schranz, with Mojmir Chytil back from injury. Sabah report no new injuries.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction
Pick: Atletico Madrid, 49 percent (close). Betfred has Atletico at 10/11, the draw at 3/1 and United at 5/2. With the margin removed that is Atletico 49.4 percent, the draw 23.6 percent and United 27.0 percent.
- Form: Atletico lost 2-1 at Liverpool on matchday 1 but have won four in a row since, scoring 11, including a 2-1 win over Real Madrid and 2-1 at Alaves on Saturday. United beat Sabah 4-0 but have won only two games in all competitions this season. They drew 1-1 with Tottenham on Saturday after conceding in stoppage time. We graded that game in our Manchester United vs Tottenham review.
- Team news: Atletico have a fully fit squad, with Julian Alvarez expected to lead the line. United are without Matthijs de Ligt (back), Noussair Mazraoui and Patrick Dorgu. Benjamin Sesko is struggling with a lower-leg injury, so Matheus Cunha or Bryan Mbeumo could play up front.
Atletico at home with a full squad, against a United side missing three defenders, is the reason for the lean. United’s draws keep it under 50 percent.
Arsenal vs Lille prediction
Pick: Arsenal, 79 percent (strong). Prices compiled by WinComparator are Arsenal 1.22, draw 7.00 and Lille 13.00, which gives Arsenal 78.9 percent, the draw 13.7 percent and Lille 7.4 percent.
- Form: Arsenal won 1-0 at Napoli on matchday 1 and beat Leeds 2-1 on Saturday. Their only defeat in the last six was 3-0 at Brighton. Lille lost 3-2 at home to Real Betis in their opener and beat Le Havre 1-0 at the weekend.
- Team news: Arsenal are without William Saliba and Christos Tzolis. Cristhian Mosquera, Piero Hincapie and Martin Zubimendi are doubts. Lille are without Ethan Mbappe (suspended after his red card against Betis), Tiago Santos (knee) and Hamza Igamane (long term). Romain Perraud and Basar Onal are doubts.
Galatasaray vs Barcelona prediction
Pick: Barcelona, 75 percent (strong). Stake prices Galatasaray at 8.20, the draw at 7.00 and Barcelona at 1.28. Margin removed, that is Barcelona 74.7 percent, the draw 13.7 percent and Galatasaray 11.7 percent.
- Form: Barcelona have won six out of six in all competitions, including 5-1 against Feyenoord on matchday 1 and 3-0 against Getafe on Saturday. Galatasaray lost 3-1 at Sporting in their opener. They have won three of their last six, but lost 4-0 at Trabzonspor.
- Team news: Barcelona are without Raphinha (thigh), with Andreas Christensen, Frenkie de Jong and Roony Bardghji also listed as missing. Victor Osimhen is back for Galatasaray after a groin injury and came off the bench in their 3-1 win over Kasimpasa.
Barcelona have the form and the squad, but Rams Park is one of the hardest away grounds in Europe, which is why this is 75 percent and not higher.
Inter vs Club Brugge prediction
Pick: Inter, 77 percent (strong). Betfred prices Inter at 2/9, the draw at 11/2 and Brugge at 10/1. That gives Inter 77.0 percent, the draw 14.5 percent and Brugge 8.6 percent.
- Form: both lost on matchday 1. Inter lost 2-1 at Real Madrid and Brugge lost 3-2 at home to Aston Villa. Inter beat Parma 3-0 at the weekend, and Brugge won 4-1 at La Louviere.
- Team news: Inter are without John Stones and Curtis Jones. Hakan Calhanoglu is fit despite going off early against Parma. Brugge are without Joel Ordonez.
Villarreal vs Napoli prediction
Pick: Villarreal, 44 percent (close). Betfred has Villarreal at 23/20, the draw at 11/4 and Napoli at 21/10. With the margin removed, that is Villarreal 44.1 percent, the draw 25.3 percent and Napoli 30.6 percent.
- Form: both lost on matchday 1. Villarreal lost 3-2 to Borussia Dortmund and Napoli lost 1-0 to Arsenal. Villarreal then lost 1-0 at Real Madrid on Saturday. Napoli are unbeaten in three since, most recently 3-0 against Frosinone.
- Team news: Villarreal are without Tajon Buchanan (hamstring), and Nicolas Pepe is a doubt after eye surgery. Napoli are without Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Alessandro Buongiorno, Alisson Santos and Mathias Olivera. Scott McTominay is back from heart surgery and could start for the first time since August.
RB Leipzig vs PSV prediction
Pick: RB Leipzig, 54 percent (close). Betfred has Leipzig at 8/11, the draw at 7/2 and PSV at 11/4. That works out to Leipzig 54.2 percent, the draw 20.8 percent and PSV 25.0 percent.
- Form: Leipzig lost 4-1 at Como on matchday 1, but they have won their first three home games of the season 3-0, 5-0 and 6-0. PSV drew 1-1 at home with Shakhtar in their opener, and nine of their ten games this season have had more than 2.5 goals.
- Team news: Leipzig are expected to be without Assan Ouedraogo and Christoph Baumgartner, and Marc Guiu needs a fitness test. PSV have a long list of absentees: Sam Lammers, Sami Ouaissa, Jerdy Schouten, Kilian Sildillia, Alassane Plea, Paul Wanner, Ricardo Pepi and Adamo Nagalo.
Viking vs Bayern Munich prediction
Pick: Bayern Munich, 85 percent (strong). Betfred prices Viking at 14/1, the draw at 10/1 and Bayern at 1/11. Margin removed, that is Bayern 85.3 percent, the draw 8.5 percent and Viking 6.2 percent. It is the strongest pick on the card.
- Form: Bayern beat Bodo/Glimt 5-0 on matchday 1. Viking start their league phase campaign tonight.
- Team news: Bayern are without Jamal Musiala (thigh), so Ismael Saibari may start behind Harry Kane, with Michael Olise and Luis Diaz either side. Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic are expected in midfield.
Betting angles for the close calls
Five of tonight’s nine picks are under 55 percent. If you would rather cover the draw, these are the double chance figures from the same margin-removed prices. They are not our graded picks, and they pay less. Read what double chance costs before you use them.
| Fixture | Our pick | Pick or draw |
|---|---|---|
| Lens v Sporting | Lens, 39% | Lens or draw, about 64% |
| Sabah v Slavia Prague | Slavia, 49% | Slavia or draw, about 74% |
| Atletico Madrid v Manchester United | Atletico, 49% | Atletico or draw, about 73% |
| Villarreal v Napoli | Villarreal, 44% | Villarreal or draw, about 69% |
| RB Leipzig v PSV | Leipzig, 54% | Leipzig or draw, about 75% |
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Our record by confidence band
We publish a confidence figure with every pick and grade all of them in public, losses included. These figures update automatically from our graded results log.
| Band | Live record | Tonight’s picks in this band |
|---|---|---|
| Strong (70% and above) | 25W-5L (83%) | Bayern, Arsenal, Inter, Barcelona |
| Good (55 to 69%) | 52W-29L (64%) | None |
| Close (under 55%) | 37W-47L (44%) | Leipzig, Slavia, Atletico, Villarreal, Lens |
| Overall | 114 wins from 195 graded picks (58%) | Nine picks |
Champions League predictions FAQs
How did your Champions League picks do on 13 October?
Five of nine won, 56 percent. Arsenal, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Villarreal and RB Leipzig won. Lens, Slavia Prague and Inter lost, and Bayern Munich drew 3-3 at Viking, which counts as a loss.
What time are the Champions League games tonight in South Africa?
Lens v Sporting and Sabah v Slavia Prague kick off at 18:45 SAST. The other seven games, including Atletico Madrid v Manchester United, Arsenal v Lille and Galatasaray v Barcelona, kick off at 21:00 SAST on Tuesday 13 October 2026.
What is your safest Champions League pick tonight?
Bayern Munich to win at Viking, at 85 percent. It is the highest margin-removed probability on the card. No pick is guaranteed.
What is your Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction?
Atletico Madrid to win, at 49 percent. That is a close call. United are 27 percent and the draw is about 24 percent. United are missing De Ligt, Mazraoui and Dorgu, and Sesko is a doubt.
Which Champions League games are on Wednesday?
Nine more matchday 2 games are played on Wednesday 14 October, including Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain, LASK v Liverpool and Roma v Real Madrid.
Final verdict
Back the strong four with the most confidence: Bayern, Arsenal, Inter and Barcelona. Treat Atletico v Manchester United, Villarreal v Napoli, Leipzig v PSV and the two early games as leans. For the full fixture list and results as they come in, see UEFA’s league phase fixtures page.
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Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.