We published 16 predictions for the weekend of 22–23 August across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and MLS. Ten won and six lost, a 63% strike rate for the round. Four of the six losses were matches that finished level, because a draw counts as a loss under our grading rules. Three MLS picks were voided. The season record now stands at 19 wins and 14 losses from 33 graded picks, 58% overall.
Weekend scoreboard by league
| League | Picks | Won | Lost | Strike rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A (Matchday 1) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% |
| MLS | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| Premier League (Matchweek 2) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| La Liga (Matchday 2) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Weekend total | 16 | 10 | 6 | 63% |
Every graded pick, 22 to 23 August 2026
Each row shows the pick exactly as it was published on the predictions board before kick-off, the confidence score attached to it, and the official full-time result.
| League | Match and result | Our pick | Conf. | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | Inter 4–1 Monza | Inter win | 80% | WIN |
| La Liga | Elche 0–5 Barcelona | Barcelona win | 73% | WIN |
| EPL | Hull City 2–0 Manchester United | Man Utd win | 71% | LOSS |
| La Liga | Espanyol 1–2 Real Madrid | Real Madrid win | 67% | WIN |
| EPL | Man City 2–1 Bournemouth | Man City win | 66% | WIN |
| Serie A | Frosinone 0–1 Juventus | Juventus win | 66% | WIN |
| MLS | Vancouver 5–0 FC Dallas | Vancouver win | 65% | WIN |
| Serie A | Atalanta 2–1 Sassuolo | Atalanta win | 64% | WIN |
| La Liga | Athletic Bilbao 1–3 Sevilla | Athletic win | 56% | LOSS |
| MLS | Nashville 3–2 Columbus Crew | Nashville win | 55% | WIN |
| Serie A | Udinese 1–1 Como | Como win | 52% | LOSS |
| Serie A | Genoa 0–2 Napoli | Napoli win | 51% | WIN |
| La Liga | Atletico Madrid 2–2 Villarreal | Atletico win | 50% | LOSS |
| EPL | Newcastle 2–2 Liverpool | Liverpool win | 49% | LOSS |
| MLS | Austin 1–1 Philadelphia | Philadelphia win | 45% | LOSS |
| EPL | Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace | Everton win | 44% | WIN |
Three MLS picks voided
Our fixture feed listed Inter Miami v Toronto (71%), FC Cincinnati v Seattle Sounders (60%) and Charlotte FC v DC United (53%) for Saturday night. None of the three appears on the official MLS schedule for that date, so none can be verified as played. Under our rules an unverifiable fixture is VOID: the pick is struck from the record rather than counted as a win or a loss. That is the second time this has happened with the MLS feed, and replacing that data source is now the top item on our fixtures fix list.
The pick that hurt: Hull City 2–0 Manchester United
Manchester United at 71% was the first pick above our 70% strong-pick threshold to lose all season. Hull did not merely hold on, they won by two goals at home without conceding, which is the worst possible shape of a loss for a model that had United as a clear favourite.
The honest read is that our model was still weighting United on last season’s squad strength rather than on two matchweeks of current evidence. Promoted sides in August are the single hardest thing in football to price, because there is no current-season data to work from and last season’s second-tier form does not translate cleanly.
Serie A’s opening weekend was our best round of the season
Four wins from five on Matchday 1 (80%) is the strongest single-league round we have graded. The three margins that mattered were comfortable: Inter beat Monza 4–1, Napoli won 2–0 at Genoa off a 51% call, and Atalanta saw off Sassuolo 2–1. The only loss, Como at 52%, ended 1–1 at Udinese.
We are not treating one matchday as proof of anything. Five picks is a sample small enough that a single weekend can swing it from 80% to 40%. It goes on the board because that is the rule, not because it is predictive.
Four of six losses were draws, again
Newcastle 2–2 Liverpool, Atletico 2–2 Villarreal, Udinese 1–1 Como and Austin 1–1 Philadelphia. In each case the side we named did not lose. Under 1X2 grading that is still a loss, and it is now the dominant failure mode of the whole season: nine of our 14 losses across 33 picks have been draws. Only five picks named the wrong winner.
We broke that pattern down properly in a separate piece, including what it does to the maths on draw no bet and double chance markets: Draw No Bet Meaning: What 33 Graded Predictions Show About the Draw Trap.
Season record after 33 graded picks
| Competition | Won | Lost | Graded | Strike rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 4 | 1 | 5 | 80% |
| La Liga | 5 | 3 | 8 | 63% |
| Premier League | 3 | 2 | 5 | 60% |
| MLS | 5 | 5 | 10 | 50% |
| Champions League | 2 | 2 | 4 | 50% |
| UFC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| All competitions | 19 | 14 | 33 | 58% |
Does the confidence score actually mean anything?
This is the check most prediction sites never publish, because it is the one that exposes them. If our confidence scores are worth anything, higher-confidence picks should win more often than lower-confidence picks. Across all 33 graded picks they do, and the gap is wide.
| Confidence band | Picks | Won | Lost | Strike rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong, 70% and above | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% |
| Good, 55% to 69% | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% |
| Close call, under 55% | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
The bands rank in the right order and the spread between the top and bottom band is 48 percentage points. That is what a working confidence score looks like. The practical consequence for a reader is simple: our close calls are labelled close calls for a reason, and 38% is what they have returned. Treat the badge on each pick as the actual instruction, not decoration.
What is live now
- Monday 24 August: Fulham v Chelsea, 19:00 GMT, and AS Roma v Fiorentina, 18:45 GMT. Both are on tonight’s board.
- Tuesday 25 and Wednesday 26 August: La Liga midweek (Valencia v Real Betis, Real Madrid v Real Sociedad) plus the Champions League play-off second legs.
- Friday 28 August: the Bundesliga opener, Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart, currently our highest-confidence pick of the week at 75%.
Follow the picks this week
- Today’s football betting tips, refreshed each morning
- Bet of the day, one pick only, and no-bet days are declared
- Tomorrow’s soccer predictions
- Correct score predictions, with the honest hit rate attached
- How accurate are football predictions? Our real, graded numbers
How we grade, in full
- Every pick is graded against the official full-time result, wins and losses both.
- A pick wins only if the named side wins the match. A draw counts as a loss. We do not reclassify draws as pushes or half-wins.
- Extra time and penalties are ignored for league fixtures. Two-legged ties are graded on the individual leg we picked.
- A fixture that cannot be verified as played is voided and excluded from the record. Eleven picks have been voided this season.
- Picks are never edited or removed after kick-off. The board you see before the match is the board that gets graded.