Arsenal v Leeds United kicks off at 13:30 South African time on Saturday 10 October 2026, which is 12:30 in London, at the Emirates Stadium. Our published pick is Arsenal to win at 66 percent, a good-band call rather than a strong one. The betting market has Arsenal at 68.2 percent once the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out, so this is the one fixture of the six on Saturday where we and the market effectively agree. The odd detail is the draw: Leeds have drawn three of five and the market still prices this as the least likely draw of the whole matchweek.
The fixture, double verified
Date, kick-off and venue are confirmed by two sources that agree: the ESPN Premier League feed gives 10 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC at the Emirates Stadium in London, and the UK television listing gives Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:30 UK time at the Emirates, stage 6, with coverage on TNT Sports from 11:00. Those are the same moment. 11:30 UTC is 12:30 in London in October and 13:30 in South Africa.
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League, matchweek 6 |
| Date | Saturday 10 October 2026 |
| Kick-off | 13:30 SAST, 12:30 UK, 11:30 UTC |
| Venue | Emirates Stadium, London |
| Our pick | Arsenal to win, 66%, good band |
Where the two sides actually are
Taken from the verified Premier League table this morning, with the arithmetic checked. Across the division, wins total 34 and losses total 34, the drawn column totals 32 for 16 drawn matches, and 34 plus 16 is 50 matches played. Goals for and goals against both total 141. The table is internally clean, so the numbers below can be trusted.
| Club | Pos | P | W-D-L | Pts | Points per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2nd | 5 | 4-0-1 | 12 | 2.40 | 1.60 a game | 0.80 a game |
| Leeds United | 5th | 5 | 2-3-0 | 9 | 1.80 | 1.40 a game | 0.60 a game |
| Gap | 3 places | 3 pts | 0.60 a game |
Leeds are unbeaten after five and still only fifth, because three of those five finished level. Arsenal have lost once and won the other four. Nought drawn against three drawn is the whole shape of this fixture, and it is why our number is 66 and not 75.
Our model against the market, all six Saturday fixtures
This is the original dataset on this page and it is not published anywhere else. The ESPN Premier League scoreboard carries DraftKings three-way prices. We converted each American price to an implied probability, added the three together to find the bookmaker’s margin, then divided through to remove it. The result is a clean market probability that can be set beside our own published figure.
| Fixture, 10 October | Our pick | Ours | Market | Gap | Market draw price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Leeds United | Arsenal | 66% | 68.2% | 2.2 below | 19.3% |
| Manchester United v Tottenham | Manchester United | 58% | 56.0% | 2.0 above | 22.5% |
| Chelsea v Bournemouth | Chelsea | 62% | 55.0% | 7.0 above | 23.0% |
| Aston Villa v Brentford | Brentford away | 48% | 37.0% | 11.0 above | 26.6% |
| Sunderland v Brighton | Brighton away | 57% | 40.1% | 16.9 above | 26.9% |
| Ipswich Town v Fulham | Ipswich | 61% | 35.6% | 25.4 above | 26.6% |
| Six fixtures | Mean disagreement | 10.8 points | Margin 5.7% to 6.2% |
The average distance between our figure and the market’s across the six is 10.8 points, and this match is the tightest at 2.2. The widest is Ipswich against Fulham, where we have the home side at 61 percent and the market has them at 35.6 percent and actually favours Fulham. We are publishing that disagreement rather than quietly revising towards the price, because a model that moves to match the market every time it differs is not a model.
One caution on reading this table: a market price is not the truth, it is a price with money behind it. On the three fixtures where we sit more than ten points above the market we are the ones carrying the risk, and the record below is how anyone can check whether that has worked out historically.
The draw, which is the mispriced thing here
Across the division, 16 of 50 matches have been drawn, a 32.0 percent base rate. Leeds have drawn three of five, 60.0 percent, which makes them one of five clubs on three draws from five. Arsenal have drawn none of five, which makes them one of only four clubs yet to draw a game.
Put a draw-prone unbeaten side in front of a side that never draws and the market’s answer is a 19.3 percent draw, comfortably the cheapest of the six Saturday fixtures and more than seven points below the 26.9 percent on Sunderland against Brighton. The market is saying Arsenal’s pattern wins the argument over Leeds’s. We think that is roughly right, which is why our 66 percent sits just under the market rather than over it, but it is also the clearest reason not to rate this match in the strong band.
| Draw measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| League draw rate, 16 of 50 matches | 32.0% |
| Leeds United, 3 drawn of 5 | 60.0% |
| Arsenal, 0 drawn of 5 | 0.0% |
| Market draw price for this fixture | 19.3% |
| Cheapest other draw of the round | 22.5%, Manchester United v Tottenham |
Our record, read off the site this morning
The overall graded record is 101 wins and 74 losses from 175 graded picks, 58 percent. In the strong band, the calls we rate at 70 percent or above, it is 23 wins from 27, 85 percent. Both figures were read off the live homepage today. A 66 percent call like this one sits in the good band, which is the middle tier and historically the middle performer.
We are not quoting a Premier League column figure or an Arsenal club figure on this page. The accuracy-by-competition table on our homepage is assembled in the browser from the pick log, so it does not come back when the page is fetched, and we will not state a per-competition percentage we could not read this morning. Every graded pick, win and loss, is listed on the predictions board.
Read next
- Today’s predictions board, every fixture with its confidence figure
- Liverpool v Man City: our 51 percent call and a 14 point market disagreement
- Arsenal v Chelsea and the full matchweek 5 card
- The Bafana Bafana squad in full, and the shape that stands out
- Bet of the day, our single highest-confidence call
- Correct score predictions
- The verified Betway Premiership log and points per game
- Betway Premiership fixtures, with our picks and an opponent difficulty index
Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.