Our Nottingham Forest vs Man City prediction is Manchester City to win, at 55 percent, which puts it in our good band. The match kicks off at the City Ground on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:30 South African time (17:30 in the United Kingdom). City lost 1-0 at home to Brighton last week and sit three points behind Arsenal; Forest are 19th with one league win all season. Before you add City to a Saturday accumulator, read the second half of this page: the five biggest favourites on today’s card, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Roma, Bayern Munich and Dortmund, all win together only about 26 percent of the time.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City: kick-off, venue and officials
Sources checked on 7 November 2026 agree on the date, ground and clock. The UK is on GMT, so 17:30 in Nottingham is 19:30 SAST.
| Detail | Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League, Matchweek 10 |
| Date | Saturday 7 November 2026 |
| Kick-off | 19:30 SAST (17:30 UK) |
| Venue | The City Ground, Nottingham |
| Referee | Sam Barrott, with Paul Tierney on VAR (per ESPN) |
Form guide and the table
The rows below are from the Premier League table before Saturday’s games. City have played nine and won seven; Forest have one win from nine and sit in the relegation places.
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | Pts | Pts per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 2.67 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 2.33 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0.67 |
Manchester City
City’s last two results tell the story of their season so far. They lost 1-0 at home to Brighton on 31 October, which cost them top spot, then won 3-2 against RB Leipzig in the Champions League in midweek. They score freely, 20 league goals, the most in the division, but they have conceded in seven games in a row across all competitions, 14 goals in that run according to Covers.
Nottingham Forest
Forest lost 2-0 at Brentford last weekend and have lost four of their last five league games, drawing the other. The interesting number is the gap between chances and goals: Forest have created about 14.6 expected goals but scored only 6, one of the biggest underperformances in the league. Manager Oliver Glasner is under pressure, per ESPN.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City head to head
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | Premier League | Man City v Forest | 2-2 |
| Dec 2025 | Premier League | Forest v Man City | 1-2 |
| Apr 2025 | FA Cup semi-final | Forest v Man City | 0-2 |
| Mar 2025 | Premier League | Forest v Man City | 1-0 |
| Dec 2024 | Premier League | Man City v Forest | 3-0 |
| Apr 2024 | Premier League | Forest v Man City | 0-2 |
- The six meetings above are the most recent. Across the last nine, City have won six, drawn two and lost one.
- Forest’s only win in that run was 1-0 at the City Ground in March 2025.
- Erling Haaland has not scored in his last four games against Forest.
- Elliot Anderson, now a City midfielder, scored Forest’s equaliser in the 2-2 draw last March.
Team news and injuries
Checked against ESPN’s match preview and two betting previews published on 5 and 6 November. The sources differ on whether Igor Jesus and Nicolas Dominguez are out or only doubtful, so we list them as doubts.
| Club | Out | Doubtful |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | Nicolo Savona (knee) | Igor Jesus (calf), Nicolas Dominguez (knock), Joe Rodon (hamstring) |
| Manchester City | Antoine Semenyo (leg) | None reported |
Key stats
| Stat, Premier League only | Nottingham Forest | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Won, drawn, lost | 1-3-5 | 7-0-2 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 20 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 14.6 | 18.3 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 10 |
| Expected goals against (xGA) | 9.2 | 11.7 |
| Average possession | 47.7% | 64% |
Figures from SportsbookReview’s preview of 7 November. Forest’s xG says they deserve more goals than they have, which is the main reason this is a good-band pick and not a strong one.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City odds and our pick
We take the three-way prices, convert each to a percentage and scale the three so they add up to 100. That strips out the bookmaker’s margin and leaves the market’s actual view. Prices will move before kick-off.
| Outcome | BetMGM price, 5 Nov | Market view, margin removed | SportRadar model, 7 Nov |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest win | 4.60 | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Man City win | 1.71 | 55.6% | 55.2% |
| Book total | 105.2% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
BetMGM’s prices were published in American format (+360, +300, -141) and converted to decimal here. A prediction market, Kalshi, gave almost the same picture on 6 November: City 57 percent, the draw 24, Forest 21. Over 2.5 goals is priced around 1.61 and both teams to score around 1.60.
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Betting tip
The case for City is simple: the best attack in the league against a side that has won once, and a head-to-head record of six wins in nine. The case against is that City keep conceding, Forest create far more than they score, and City have already lost twice in the league.
That is why the pick sits at 55 percent and not 75. If you want cover, City or draw comes out at about 79 percent on the same numbers. If you like the goals angle, the prices point the same way as the stats: City have conceded in seven straight games and Forest’s chances suggest goals are coming, which is why both teams to score is priced shorter than evens. We would not stake more than a small, flat amount on any of these.
The banker acca trap: why five favourites is not a sure thing
Saturday’s card has five teams that are 73 percent or more likely to win on our board: Arsenal, Real Madrid, Roma, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Put them in one slip and it feels like a banker acca. The maths says otherwise, because the chances multiply, they do not add up.
| Leg (kick-off SAST) | Chance this leg wins | Fair odds, no margin | Chance the slip is still alive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Hull City (17:00) | 83.9% | 1.19 | 83.9% |
| Valencia v Real Madrid (22:00) | 76.6% | 1.31 | 64.3% |
| Roma v Sassuolo (21:45) | 74.6% | 1.34 | 47.9% |
| Mainz v Bayern Munich (16:30) | 73.7% | 1.36 | 35.3% |
| Dortmund v Elversberg (16:30) | 73.5% | 1.36 | 26.0% |
| All five win | 26.0% | 3.85 | About 1 in 4 |
Percentages are the SportRadar model’s, the same numbers on our homepage board, read on 7 November. Three things stand out:
- After three legs, the slip is already below a coin flip. Arsenal, Madrid and Roma together land about 48 percent of the time.
- Five-for-five loses roughly three Saturdays in four. Even if every one of those teams is a deserved favourite, at least one of them will usually draw or slip up.
- Our own record says the same thing. Our strong picks have landed 81 percent of the time (43 won, 10 lost). At that hit rate, five strong picks in one slip all land only about 35 percent of the time.
There is a second cost. Each leg carries the bookmaker’s margin, and on an accumulator those margins multiply too. Five legs at about 5 percent margin each means the slip pays roughly 22 percent less than its fair price. The bookmaker’s edge on a five-fold is far bigger than on a single.
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Smarter ways to use today’s favourites
None of this means favourites are bad bets. It means the slip should match how likely it is to land. Some options, with the chance each one lands on the same numbers:
| Approach | Chance it lands | Fair odds | Why consider it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singles on the strong picks, flat stakes | 74% to 84% each | 1.19 to 1.36 | One loss does not wipe out the day. Lowest margin. |
| Double: Arsenal and Real Madrid | 64.3% | 1.56 | The two strongest legs, landing about two times in three. |
| Five-fold double chance (each favourite to win or draw) | 60.2% | 1.66 | Covers the draw on every leg, but the price is short once the margin is taken. |
| The full five-fold | 26.0% | 3.85 | Fine for a small fun stake, never as a banker. |
One practical point: Bayern and Dortmund both kick off at 16:30 SAST, so if you are watching the slip live, two of the five legs are decided in the same 90 minutes.
Football predictions today: all 17 league picks
Every pick below is on our homepage board and will be graded there after the final whistle. Strong is 70 percent and above, good is 55 to 69 percent, close is under 55 percent. Close calls are leans, not tips.
| SAST | League | Match | Our pick | Chance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | Premier League | Leeds v Tottenham | Tottenham | 37% | Close |
| 15:00 | La Liga | Malaga v Racing Santander | Malaga | 39% | Close |
| 16:00 | Serie A | Cagliari v Frosinone | Frosinone | 40% | Close |
| 16:00 | Serie A | Torino v Lecce | Torino | 53% | Close |
| 16:30 | Bundesliga | Dortmund v Elversberg | Dortmund | 74% | Strong |
| 16:30 | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig v Augsburg | RB Leipzig | 67% | Good |
| 16:30 | Bundesliga | Mainz v Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich | 74% | Strong |
| 16:30 | Bundesliga | Paderborn v Eintracht Frankfurt | Frankfurt | 43% | Close |
| 17:00 | Premier League | Arsenal v Hull City | Arsenal | 84% | Strong |
| 17:00 | Premier League | Fulham v Newcastle | Fulham | 47% | Close |
| 17:15 | La Liga | Espanyol v Deportivo | Espanyol | 40% | Close |
| 19:00 | Serie A | Parma v Bologna | Bologna | 52% | Close |
| 19:30 | Premier League | Nottingham Forest v Man City | Man City | 55% | Good |
| 19:30 | La Liga | Osasuna v Athletic Club | Athletic Club | 47% | Close |
| 19:30 | Bundesliga | Stuttgart v Werder Bremen | Stuttgart | 56% | Good |
| 21:45 | Serie A | Roma v Sassuolo | Roma | 75% | Strong |
| 22:00 | La Liga | Valencia v Real Madrid | Real Madrid | 77% | Strong |
Nine of the 17 are close calls. On a day like this the honest move is to bet fewer games, not more.
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Our record by confidence band, losses included
Every pick stays on our public results board with its result attached. These figures were read from our today’s predictions page on 7 November 2026.
| Band | Chance range | Won | Lost | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong | 70% and above | 43 | 10 | 81% |
| Good | 55 to 69% | 83 | 44 | 65% |
| Close | Under 55% | 73 | 76 | 49% |
| All graded picks | 199 | 130 | 60% |
The bands behave the way honest probabilities should: strong picks land most often, close calls about half the time. Even our strongest band loses about one game in five, which is exactly why five of them in one slip is not a banker.
FAQs
What time is Nottingham Forest vs Man City?
Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:30 SAST, which is 17:30 in the United Kingdom. The match is at the City Ground in Nottingham.
What is your Nottingham Forest vs Man City prediction?
Manchester City to win, 55 percent, in our good band. That matches the betting market with the bookmaker margin removed. A draw, at about 24 percent, would lose the pick.
Is a five-team acca of big favourites a banker?
No. Today’s five biggest favourites, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Roma, Bayern Munich and Dortmund, each win 73 to 84 percent of the time, but all five win together only about 26 percent of the time, roughly 1 in 4.
Who is injured for Nottingham Forest vs Man City?
Forest are without Nicolo Savona, with Igor Jesus, Nicolas Dominguez and Joe Rodon doubtful. City are without Antoine Semenyo.
Final verdict
City are the right favourites at the City Ground and our pick is City to win at 55 percent. Forest’s chances and City’s leaky run keep it out of the strong band, so take City or draw if you want cover and keep stakes small. On the wider card, back the strong picks as singles or a short double, and treat a five-team banker acca as what it really is: a one-in-four shot. We will grade every pick here and on the homepage board after the final whistle.
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Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. We earn commission from some links on this page; see our advertising disclosure. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.