Full time: Champions League results and how our picks graded
Six of our nine Champions League picks won on Wednesday night, 67 percent. Three of the four strong picks won: Real Madrid beat RB Leipzig 4-1, Aston Villa beat Viking 3-1 and Inter beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0. The strongest pick on the card, Sporting at 80 percent, lost 3-2 at home to LASK. Real Betis, our only good pick, won 1-0, and two of the four close calls won, Como and Club Brugge. Our rule is that a pick wins only if the named side wins, so the 2-2 draw in Munich counts as a loss.
| Fixture | Full time | Our pick | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como v Manchester United | 4-1 | Como, 42% | WIN |
| Lille v Galatasaray | 2-4 | Lille, 43% | LOSS |
| Bayern Munich v Arsenal | 2-2 | Bayern Munich, 44% | LOSS (draw) |
| Real Madrid v RB Leipzig | 4-1 | Real Madrid, 76% | WIN |
| Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-0 | Inter, 79% | WIN |
| Aston Villa v Viking | 3-1 | Aston Villa, 76% | WIN |
| Sporting v LASK | 2-3 | Sporting, 80% | LOSS |
| Club Brugge v Lens | 3-0 | Club Brugge, 47% | WIN |
| Real Betis v Feyenoord | 1-0 | Real Betis, 60% | WIN |
| Nine picks | Strong 3 of 4, good 1 of 1, close 2 of 4 | 6W-3L, 67% |
What decided the night
- Sporting 2-3 LASK. Sporting scored after five minutes, but LASK equalised on 15 and scored twice more on 63 and 68 minutes. Sporting’s reply came in the 89th. LASK had seven shots on target to Sporting’s five. That is the biggest upset of the matchday and the third strong pick in two weeks to fail in this competition.
- Bayern Munich 2-2 Arsenal. Arsenal led on 25 minutes, the first goal they have conceded in Europe this season came ten minutes later, and Bayern went ahead on 61. Arsenal equalised on 82 minutes. A draw, so our 44 percent lean on Bayern lost, though Bayern or the draw won.
- Lille 2-4 Galatasaray. Galatasaray scored in the second minute, Lille led 2-1 by the 39th, then Galatasaray scored on 44, 52 and 61 minutes for their first points of the campaign.
- Como 4-1 Manchester United. Como scored in the second minute and again on 49, 57 and 76 minutes, with nine shots on target. United’s goal came in the 90th.
- Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig, Aston Villa 3-1 Viking, Inter 1-0 Shakhtar, Club Brugge 3-0 Lens and Real Betis 1-0 Feyenoord all went as picked. Inter, who lost at home at a similar price last week, got their first points.
On the draw-cover angles listed further down, four of the five double chance options won (Como or draw, Bayern or draw, Brugge or draw, Betis or draw) and one lost (Lille or draw). The preview below is unchanged from before kick-off, so you can see exactly what we said.
Our Champions League predictions today cover all nine games on Wednesday 21 October 2026. Two kick off at 18:45 SAST and seven at 21:00 SAST. The strongest picks are Sporting at home to LASK, 80 percent, Inter against Shakhtar Donetsk at 79 percent, and Real Madrid against RB Leipzig and Aston Villa against Viking, both 76 percent. The headline game, Bayern Munich v Arsenal, is a close call: we lean Bayern at 44 percent. Four of the nine picks are close calls under 55 percent, so this is a less settled card than last night’s.
Champions League predictions today: all nine picks
Kick-off times are South African time. Strong means 70 percent and above, good means 55 to 69 percent, and close means under 55 percent.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Venue | Our pick | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:45 | Como v Manchester United | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como | Como, 42% | Close |
| 18:45 | Lille v Galatasaray | Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille | Lille, 43% | Close |
| 21:00 | Bayern Munich v Arsenal | Allianz Arena, Munich | Bayern Munich, 44% | Close |
| 21:00 | Real Madrid v RB Leipzig | Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid | Real Madrid, 76% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk | San Siro, Milan | Inter, 79% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Aston Villa v Viking | Villa Park, Birmingham | Aston Villa, 76% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Sporting v LASK | Estadio Jose Alvalade, Lisbon | Sporting, 80% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Club Brugge v Lens | Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges | Club Brugge, 47% | Close |
| 21:00 | Real Betis v Feyenoord | Estadio de la Cartuja, Seville | Real Betis, 60% | Good |
| Nine fixtures | Four strong, one good, four close |
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How we set the numbers
Each figure is the bookmaker’s implied probability for the named side with the margin removed. We take the 1X2 prices, convert each to a percentage, then scale the three so they add up to 100. The source for each game is named in its section. Prices were checked on the morning of 21 October and will move before kick-off. A pick wins only if the named side wins, so a draw grades as a loss.
18:45 games: Como v Manchester United and Lille v Galatasaray
Como vs Manchester United prediction
Pick: Como, 42 percent (close). DraftKings, as listed by Gainblers, prices Como at 2.25, the draw at 3.75 and Manchester United at 2.90. With the margin removed that is Como 42.1 percent, United 32.7 percent and the draw 25.3 percent.
- Form: both sides have three points. Como beat RB Leipzig 4-1 on matchday 1, then lost 3-2 at Feyenoord last week. United beat Sabah 4-0 at home, then lost 2-0 at Atletico Madrid, a game we picked Atletico to win.
- Team news: the previews we checked report no new absentees for either side. United played a league game three days ago, so some rotation is likely.
Como at home are the market’s side, but only just. Both teams have scored freely, and one model we checked puts both teams to score at about 60 percent.
Lille vs Galatasaray prediction
Pick: Lille, 43 percent (close). Prices listed by Oddslot are Lille 2.20, the draw 3.75 and Galatasaray 3.00. Margin removed, that is Lille 43.1 percent, Galatasaray 31.6 percent and the draw 25.3 percent.
- Form: both sides have no points from two games. Lille lost 3-0 at Arsenal last week. Galatasaray lost 4-1 at home to Barcelona, a game we picked Barcelona to win.
- Team news: we could not confirm absentees for either side from the previews we checked.
Two pointless teams, and one of them has to start scoring. Lille’s home advantage is the only reason they are the pick.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction
Pick: Bayern Munich, 44 percent (close). 1win, as listed by Futbol24, prices Bayern at 2.23, the draw at 3.92 and Arsenal at 3.21. Margin removed, that is Bayern 44.2 percent, Arsenal 30.7 percent and the draw 25.1 percent.
- Form: Arsenal have six points and have not conceded, after a 1-0 win at Napoli and a 3-0 home win over Lille. Bayern have four points: they beat Bodo/Glimt 5-0, then drew 3-3 at Viking last week, when our 85 percent pick on Bayern lost.
- Head to head: Arsenal won 3-1 when the sides last met, at the Emirates in November 2025.
- Team news: Arsenal have a Premier League game three days after this one, so some rotation is possible. We could not confirm new absentees for either side.
Arsenal have the better start, Bayern have home advantage and the attack. The market lands on Bayern, but at 44 percent this is a lean, not a tip. Our full Bayern Munich vs Arsenal preview covers the head to head in more detail.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction
Pick: Real Madrid, 76 percent (strong). Prices listed by Oddslot are Real Madrid 1.25, the draw 7.00 and Leipzig 9.00. Margin removed, that is Madrid 75.9 percent, the draw 13.6 percent and Leipzig 10.5 percent.
- Form: Madrid have six points after beating Inter 2-1 at home and winning 4-3 at Roma last week. Leipzig have three: they lost 4-1 at Como, then beat PSV 1-0 at home, a game we picked Leipzig to win.
- Team news: Kylian Mbappe has two goals in two Champions League games. Madrid played a league game three days ago, so rotation is possible. We could not confirm other absentees.
Madrid have conceded four times in two games, so a Leipzig goal is plausible, but Madrid at home are still one of the four strong picks tonight.
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction
Pick: Inter, 79 percent (strong). Prices listed by Oddslot are Inter 1.20, the draw 7.00 and Shakhtar 13.00. Margin removed, that is Inter 79.1 percent, the draw 13.6 percent and Shakhtar 7.3 percent.
- Form: Inter have no points. They lost 2-1 at Real Madrid, then 4-3 at home to Club Brugge last week, when our 77 percent pick on Inter lost. Shakhtar have four points after a 1-1 draw at PSV and a 3-1 home win over AEK Athens.
- Team news: Gleiker Mendoza has two goals for Shakhtar from four shots. We could not confirm absentees for either side.
This is the pick that needs the most honesty. The market still makes Inter heavy favourites, but the last time we backed them at a similar price at San Siro, they lost.
Aston Villa vs Viking prediction
Pick: Aston Villa, 76 percent (strong). Prices listed by Oddslot are Villa 1.25, the draw 6.00 and Viking 11.00. Margin removed, that is Villa 75.6 percent, the draw 15.8 percent and Viking 8.6 percent.
- Form: Villa have six points after a 3-2 win at Club Brugge and a 6-0 home win over Fenerbahce last week. Viking have one point: they lost 3-1 at Stuttgart, then drew 3-3 with Bayern Munich.
- Team news: Nicolas Jackson has three Champions League goals for Villa this season. We could not confirm absentees for either side.
Viking have conceded in every Champions League game so far. They also scored three against Bayern, so do not assume a clean sheet.
Sporting vs LASK prediction
Pick: Sporting, 80 percent (strong). Prices listed by Oddslot are Sporting 1.20, the draw 7.50 and LASK 13.00. Margin removed, that is Sporting 79.9 percent, the draw 12.8 percent and LASK 7.4 percent. It is the strongest pick on the card.
- Form: Sporting have six points, including a 2-0 win at Lens last week. LASK have none: they lost 1-0 at AEK Athens and 6-3 at home to Liverpool.
- Team news: we could not confirm absentees for either side from the previews we checked.
LASK have conceded seven in two games. Eighty percent is still not certain: no pick is.
Club Brugge vs Lens prediction
Pick: Club Brugge, 47 percent (close). Prices listed by Oddslot are Brugge 2.00, the draw 4.10 and Lens 3.20. Margin removed, that is Brugge 47.3 percent, Lens 29.6 percent and the draw 23.1 percent.
- Form: both sides have three points. Brugge lost 3-2 at home to Aston Villa, then won 4-3 at Inter. Lens beat Slavia Prague 3-2 away, then lost 2-0 at home to Sporting.
- Team news: we could not confirm absentees for either side.
Brugge have scored six in two games and conceded six. Both teams to score looks more likely than either clean sheet.
Real Betis vs Feyenoord prediction
Pick: Real Betis, 60 percent (good). Prices listed by Oddslot are Betis 1.57, the draw 4.50 and Feyenoord 5.00. Margin removed, that is Betis 60.1 percent, the draw 21.0 percent and Feyenoord 18.9 percent.
- Form: Betis have six points after beating Porto 3-2 last week. Feyenoord have three: they lost heavily to Barcelona on matchday 1, then beat Como 3-2 at home.
- Team news: we could not confirm absentees for either side.
Betis are the only good-band pick tonight. Feyenoord have shown they can score, which is why this is not a strong pick.
Betting angles for the closer games
Four of tonight’s picks are close calls. If you would rather cover the draw, these are the double chance figures from the same margin-removed prices. They are not our graded picks, and they pay less. Read what double chance costs before you use them.
| Fixture | Our pick | Pick or draw |
|---|---|---|
| Como v Manchester United | Como, 42% | Como or draw, about 67% |
| Lille v Galatasaray | Lille, 43% | Lille or draw, about 68% |
| Bayern Munich v Arsenal | Bayern, 44% | Bayern or draw, about 69% |
| Club Brugge v Lens | Club Brugge, 47% | Brugge or draw, about 70% |
| Real Betis v Feyenoord | Real Betis, 60% | Betis or draw, about 81% |
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Our record by confidence band
We publish a confidence figure with every pick and grade all of them in public, losses included. These figures update automatically from our graded results log.
| Band | Live record | Tonight’s picks in this band |
|---|---|---|
| Strong (70% and above) | 32W-7L (82%) | Sporting, Inter, Real Madrid, Aston Villa |
| Good (55 to 69%) | 55W-33L (63%) | Real Betis |
| Close (under 55%) | 44W-54L (45%) | Club Brugge, Bayern Munich, Lille, Como |
| Overall | 131 wins from 225 graded picks (58%) | Nine picks |
Champions League predictions FAQs
How did your Champions League picks do on 21 October?
Six of nine won, 67 percent. Como, Real Madrid, Inter, Aston Villa, Club Brugge and Real Betis won. Lille and Sporting lost, and Bayern Munich drew 2-2 with Arsenal, which counts as a loss.
What time are the Champions League games tonight in South Africa?
Como v Manchester United and Lille v Galatasaray kick off at 18:45 SAST. The other seven games, including Bayern Munich v Arsenal and Real Madrid v RB Leipzig, kick off at 21:00 SAST on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
What is your safest Champions League pick tonight?
Sporting to beat LASK, at 80 percent, just ahead of Inter against Shakhtar Donetsk at 79 percent. They are the highest margin-removed probabilities on the card. No pick is guaranteed.
What is your Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction?
Bayern Munich to win, at 44 percent, which is a close call. Arsenal are about 31 percent and the draw about 25 percent. Bayern or the draw is about 69 percent.
What is your Como vs Manchester United prediction?
Como to win, at 42 percent, which is a close call. Manchester United are about 33 percent and the draw about 25 percent. Both sides have three points.
What is your Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction?
Real Madrid to win, at 76 percent. The draw is about 14 percent and Leipzig about 10 percent.
Final verdict
Back the strong four with the most confidence: Sporting, Inter, Real Madrid and Aston Villa, while remembering Inter lost at home at a similar price last week. Real Betis is a fair favourite. Treat Bayern v Arsenal, Como v Manchester United, Lille v Galatasaray and Club Brugge v Lens as leans. For the full fixture list and results as they come in, see UEFA’s league phase fixtures page.
Read next
Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.