Our Champions League predictions for Wednesday cover all nine games that close out matchday 4 on 4 November 2026. Two kick off at 19:45 SAST and seven at 22:00 SAST. The strongest picks are Real Madrid away at AEK Athens, 73 percent, and Arsenal away at Slavia Prague, 72 percent. In the headline games we lean Liverpool at Fenerbahce (60 percent) and Manchester City at RB Leipzig (62 percent). Three games are close calls under 50 percent: Porto v Napoli, PSV v Club Brugge and Lens v Como.
Champions League predictions Wednesday: all nine picks
Kick-off times are South African time. Strong means 70 percent and above, good means 55 to 69 percent, and close means under 55 percent.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Our pick | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | AEK Athens v Real Madrid | Real Madrid, 73% | Strong |
| 19:45 | Fenerbahce v Liverpool | Liverpool, 60% | Good |
| 22:00 | RB Leipzig v Manchester City | Manchester City, 62% | Good |
| 22:00 | Slavia Prague v Arsenal | Arsenal, 72% | Strong |
| 22:00 | Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis | Dortmund, 55% | Good |
| 22:00 | Viking v Sabah | Viking, 64% | Good |
| 22:00 | Porto v Napoli | Porto, 42% | Close |
| 22:00 | PSV v Club Brugge | PSV, 45% | Close |
| 22:00 | Lens v Como | Como, 43% | Close |
| Nine fixtures | Two strong, four good, three close |
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How we set the numbers
Each figure is the bookmaker’s implied probability for the named side with the margin removed. We take the 1X2 prices, convert each to a percentage, then scale the three so they add up to 100. As on Tuesday, every game uses the Tonybet prices listed by RG on 1 November, so the whole card comes from one book with a margin of about 6 percent. We checked them against Ladbrokes prices from 3 November and the prediction-market figures Covers published this morning, and no favourite has changed. A pick wins only if the named side wins, so a draw grades as a loss.
19:45 games: AEK Athens v Real Madrid and Fenerbahce v Liverpool
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid prediction
Pick: Real Madrid, 73 percent (strong). Tonybet prices AEK at 8.20, the draw at 6.20 and Real Madrid at 1.29. With the margin removed that is Real Madrid 73.2 percent, the draw 15.2 percent and AEK 11.5 percent.
- Venue: Allwyn Arena, Athens.
- Form: Real Madrid have won all three, against Inter, Roma and RB Leipzig, and Kylian Mbappe has three goals. AEK beat LASK, then lost at Shakhtar and at Manchester City.
- Team news: we could not confirm new absentees for either side from the previews we checked.
A long away trip, but the gap in quality is the biggest on the card. Real Madrid are one of only two picks above 70 percent tonight.
Fenerbahce vs Liverpool prediction
Pick: Liverpool, 60 percent (good). Tonybet has Fenerbahce at 4.90, the draw at 4.50 and Liverpool at 1.58. Margin removed, that is Liverpool 59.8 percent, the draw 21.0 percent and Fenerbahce 19.3 percent.
- Venue: Chobani Stadyumu, Istanbul.
- Form: Liverpool have won all three but conceded seven, beating Atletico Madrid 2-1, LASK 6-3 and Villarreal 4-3. Alexis Mac Allister has three goals. Fenerbahce, now coached by former Liverpool forward Dirk Kuyt, are still looking for a first league phase win after two draws and a 6-0 defeat at Aston Villa.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed. Liverpool arrive after losing to Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday.
Liverpool’s three games have produced three, nine and seven goals, and Fenerbahce have conceded nine. The away win is the pick, but a short turnaround in Istanbul keeps it in the good band rather than strong. Read our Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction for how Sunday was priced.
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction
Pick: Manchester City, 62 percent (good). Tonybet prices Leipzig at 5.20, the draw at 4.70 and City at 1.53. With the margin removed that is City 61.7 percent, the draw 20.1 percent and Leipzig 18.2 percent.
- Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.
- Form: City have six points, and Erling Haaland has four goals in two games. Leipzig lost 4-1 at Como and 4-1 at Real Madrid, with a 1-0 home win over PSV in between.
- Team news: we could not confirm new absentees for either side.
Leipzig have conceded four in both away games, but they are at home tonight, where they beat PSV. City are the right side at a price that leaves room for a draw.
Slavia Prague vs Arsenal prediction
Pick: Arsenal, 72 percent (strong). Tonybet has Slavia at 8.60, the draw at 5.60 and Arsenal at 1.31. Margin removed, that is Arsenal 72.1 percent, the draw 16.9 percent and Slavia 11.0 percent.
- Venue: Fortuna Arena, Prague.
- Form: Arsenal are unbeaten, with a 1-0 win at Napoli, a 3-0 win over Lille and a 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich. Slavia have one point from three games.
- Team news: we could not confirm new absentees for either side.
The draw in Munich is the reminder that Arsenal can drop points away, but Slavia have scored little and sit near the bottom of the table. Second-strongest pick of the night.
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis prediction
Pick: Borussia Dortmund, 55 percent (good). Tonybet prices Dortmund at 1.72, the draw at 4.10 and Betis at 4.30. With the margin removed that is Dortmund 55.0 percent, the draw 23.1 percent and Betis 22.0 percent.
- Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund.
- Form: Real Betis have won all three, each by a single goal, against Lille, Porto and Feyenoord. Dortmund have six points from wins over Villarreal and Sabah and a 1-0 defeat at Bodo/Glimt. Serhou Guirassy has four goals.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
This sits right on the line between our good and close bands. Betis have the better record, Dortmund have home advantage, and the market sides with the hosts.
Viking vs Sabah prediction
Pick: Viking, 64 percent (good). Tonybet has Viking at 1.47, the draw at 4.80 and Sabah at 5.80. Margin removed, that is Viking 64.1 percent, the draw 19.6 percent and Sabah 16.2 percent.
- Venue: Viking Stadion, Stavanger.
- Form: Viking’s only point came from a 3-3 draw with Bayern Munich. Sabah beat Slavia Prague 2-0, then lost 4-0 to Manchester United and 2-1 to Dortmund.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
Viking are favourites without a win to their name, so 64 percent is about home advantage and Sabah’s away record. Good band, but not a banker.
Porto vs Napoli prediction
Pick: Porto, 42 percent (close). Tonybet prices Porto at 2.25, the draw at 3.50 and Napoli at 3.05. With the margin removed that is Porto 42.0 percent, Napoli 31.0 percent and the draw 27.0 percent.
- Venue: Estadio do Dragao, Porto.
- Form: Porto have lost all three and scored twice: 2-0 to Manchester City, 3-2 at Real Betis and 1-0 to PSV. They have been far stronger at home in Portugal. Napoli lost to Arsenal and at Villarreal, then beat Bodo/Glimt 4-3.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
A pointless side is still the home favourite, and the draw is priced at 27 percent, the highest on the card. A lean, not a tip.
PSV vs Club Brugge prediction
Pick: PSV, 45 percent (close). Tonybet has PSV at 2.11, the draw at 4.00 and Brugge at 2.95. Margin removed, that is PSV 44.6 percent, Brugge 31.9 percent and the draw 23.5 percent.
- Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven, Netherlands.
- Form: Club Brugge have two wins from three and nine goals, including a 4-3 win at Inter, and Nicolo Tresoldi has four goals. PSV have scored twice and conceded twice in three games.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
Brugge have the better European form, and several previews we read back them or the draw. We follow the price, so the pick is PSV, and it is a lean.
Lens vs Como prediction
Pick: Como, 43 percent (close). Tonybet prices Lens at 2.90, the draw at 3.80 and Como at 2.22. With the margin removed that is Como 42.6 percent, Lens 32.6 percent and the draw 24.9 percent.
- Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
- Form: Como have scored 10 in three games, including 4-1 home wins over RB Leipzig and Manchester United. Anastasios Douvikas has three goals and Nico Paz three assists. Lens have failed to score in their last two.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side.
Como’s only defeat came away, 3-2 at Feyenoord, which is why an in-form away favourite is still a close call.
Betting angles for the closer games
Three of tonight’s picks are close calls. If you would rather cover the draw, these are the double chance figures from the same margin-removed prices. They are not our graded picks, and they pay less. Read what double chance costs before you use them.
| Fixture | Our pick | Pick or draw |
|---|---|---|
| Porto v Napoli | Porto, 42% | Porto or draw, about 69% |
| PSV v Club Brugge | PSV, 45% | PSV or draw, about 68% |
| Lens v Como | Como, 43% | Como or draw, about 67% |
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Our record by confidence band
We publish a confidence figure with every pick and grade all of them in public, losses included. These figures update automatically from our graded results log.
| Band | Live record | Tonight’s picks in this band |
|---|---|---|
| Strong (70% and above) | 43W-10L (81%) | Real Madrid, Arsenal |
| Good (55 to 69%) | 83W-44L (65%) | Viking, Manchester City, Liverpool, Dortmund |
| Close (under 55%) | 73W-76L (49%) | PSV, Como, Porto |
| Overall | 199 wins from 329 graded picks (60%) | Nine picks |
Champions League predictions FAQs
What time are the Champions League games tonight in South Africa?
AEK Athens v Real Madrid and Fenerbahce v Liverpool kick off at 19:45 SAST. The other seven games, including RB Leipzig v Manchester City and Slavia Prague v Arsenal, kick off at 22:00 SAST on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
What is your safest Champions League pick tonight?
Real Madrid to win at AEK Athens, at 73 percent, just ahead of Arsenal at Slavia Prague at 72 percent. No pick is guaranteed.
What is your Fenerbahce vs Liverpool prediction?
Liverpool to win, at 60 percent, a good pick. The draw is about 21 percent and Fenerbahce about 19 percent.
What is your RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction?
Manchester City to win, at 62 percent, a good pick. The draw is about 20 percent and Leipzig about 18 percent.
What is your Slavia Prague vs Arsenal prediction?
Arsenal to win, at 72 percent, a strong pick. The draw is about 17 percent and Slavia about 11 percent.
How did your Tuesday Champions League picks do?
Eight of nine won on Tuesday 3 November. The only miss was Bodo/Glimt 0-0 Lille, which counts as a loss under our rules.
Final verdict
Real Madrid at AEK and Arsenal at Slavia Prague are the picks to trust most tonight. Viking, Manchester City and Liverpool are good picks, and Dortmund only just qualifies against an unbeaten Betis. Treat Porto v Napoli, PSV v Club Brugge and Lens v Como as leans. For the full fixture list and results as they come in, see UEFA’s fixtures and results page.
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Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.