England v Czechia kicks off at 20:45 South African time tonight, Tuesday 6 October 2026, which is 19:45 in London, at Wembley Stadium. At exactly the same moment, Croatia host Spain at the Poljud in Split. Both games are in the same group, so tonight is really one fixture played on two pitches. On Hollywoodbets, England are 1.12 and Spain 1.28, which is 83.9 percent and 73.9 percent once the margin is removed. Neither is a free hit: Spain have never won a match on Croatian soil, and Czechia beat England the last time England came to them in a qualifier.
The two fixtures, checked
England’s home game is confirmed by the ESPN match centre and the UK television listings at 19:45 UK time on 6 October at Wembley. Croatia against Spain is listed at 18:45 UTC on the same night at the Poljud in Split. 19:45 in London in October is 18:45 UTC, and both are 20:45 in South Africa.
| Fixture | Kick-off | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| England v Czechia | 20:45 SAST, 19:45 UK, 18:45 UTC | Wembley Stadium, London |
| Croatia v Spain | 20:45 SAST, 19:45 UK, 18:45 UTC | Stadion Poljud, Split |
How Group 3 got here
Three rounds have been played in this window. England lost the opener at home to Spain, then won in Prague and in Rijeka without conceding either time, the second of those a 7-0 win over Croatia. Spain have won all three and scored ten goals doing it, but they have conceded in every game. Czechia have lost all three.
| Date | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 26 September | England 2-3 Spain | Wembley |
| 26 September | Czechia 1-2 Croatia | Prague |
| 29 September | Czechia 0-2 England, Czechia down to ten men | Prague |
| Same week | Spain 4-1 Croatia | Seville |
| 3 October | Croatia 0-7 England | Rijeka |
| 3 October | Spain 3-1 Czechia | Spain |
| Team | P | W-D-L | Pts | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9 | 10 scored, 4 conceded |
| England | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6 | 3 conceded, all in the opener |
| Croatia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3 | 3 scored, 12 conceded |
| Czechia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 0 | No points yet |
| Check | 12 | 6 wins, 6 losses | 18 | Six matches, no draws |
The arithmetic is clean: six matches, six wins and six losses, no draws, 18 points in total. If Croatia take anything off Spain tonight and England win, the gap at the top closes to three points or less before the final two rounds in November. If Spain win in Split, they go into November on 12 points and Croatia are left looking at the bottom two.
What the market says, both games
We took the Hollywoodbets three-way prices for both games, converted each to an implied probability, added them up to find the bookmaker’s margin, then divided through to remove it. Hollywoodbets shows odds as the profit on R1, so 0.12 on the site is 1.12 in standard decimal odds. The table shows both.
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Market confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England v Czechia | 0.12 (1.12) | 7.40 (8.40) | 18 (19.00) | England 83.9%, draw 11.2%, Czechia 4.9% |
| Croatia v Spain | 8.60 (9.60) | 4.80 (5.80) | 0.28 (1.28) | Croatia 9.8%, draw 16.3%, Spain 73.9% |
| Hollywoodbets margin | 6.5% on England v Czechia, 5.8% on Croatia v Spain. Prices as Hollywoodbets displays them, standard decimal in brackets | |||
England v Czechia: a big price for a reason
England arrive on two straight clean-sheet wins and with Anthony Gordon having scored in all three games of this window. Czechia arrive with no points and a defence that has conceded in every group game. Several previews this morning lean towards a high England total rather than the bare result, which tells you how little the 1.12 actually pays.
The one note of caution is history. Czechia beat England 2-1 in Prague in 2019, and the World Cup this summer showed they can make a game awkward: they drew 1-1 with Bafana Bafana before going out. That does not make them likely winners at Wembley, but it is the reason the price is 1.12 and not 1.05.
Croatia v Spain: the record Spain have never broken
Spain come to Split unbeaten in around 40 matches, with the count varying between 39 and 42 depending on the source, and they beat Croatia 4-1 in Seville in this very window. Croatia have shipped eleven goals across their last two games and are reported to be without Nikola Vlašić and Martin Baturina.
Against all of that sits one stubborn fact: Spain have never won a match in Croatia, with one draw and one defeat from their visits. Spain are also yet to keep a clean sheet in this campaign. That combination is why the market is happier backing Spain not to lose than backing them to win by a big margin, and why both teams to score is the angle several bookmakers’ analysts are pointing at.
Read next
- Today’s predictions board, every fixture with its confidence figure
- The Bafana Bafana squad in full, and the shape that stands out
- Arsenal v Leeds, 10 October, and the cheapest draw of the round
- Chelsea v Bournemouth and the goals line that does not match the data
- Bet of the day, our single highest-confidence call
- Correct score predictions
Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. Market odds shown are indicative, were checked on the morning of 6 October 2026, and will move before kick-off. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.