Our pick
Carlos Alcaraz to win the title
Close · 42%
Final: Sunday 18 October 2026 · Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, Shanghai
Who will win the 2026 Shanghai Masters?
Our pick is Carlos Alcaraz to win the ATP Masters 1000 title in Shanghai. bet365 makes him the outright favourite at 7/5 (decimal 2.40), which converts to a 42% chance, so this sits in our Close band. Even the favourite is more likely not to win a 96-player draw than to win it. Jannik Sinner is absent injured, and top seed Alexander Zverev is next in the betting at 9/2.
Tournament facts
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Event | Rolex Shanghai Masters, ATP Masters 1000 |
| Dates | 7 to 18 October 2026 |
| Draw | 96 players, singles |
| Final | Sunday 18 October |
| Top seeds | 1 Alexander Zverev, 2 Carlos Alcaraz |
| Defending champion | Valentin Vacherot, who won it in 2025 as a qualifier |
| Absent | Jannik Sinner (knee injury) |
Outright market before the event
| Player | Fractional | Decimal | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 7/5 | 2.40 | 42% |
| Alexander Zverev | 9/2 | 5.50 | 18% |
| Ben Shelton | 10/1 | 11.00 | 9% |
| Arthur Fils | 14/1 | 15.00 | 7% |
| Novak Djokovic | 14/1 | 15.00 | 7% |
| Taylor Fritz | 20/1 | 21.00 | 5% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 22/1 | 23.00 | 4% |
| Rafael Jodar | 25/1 | 26.00 | 4% |
Prices are bet365’s outright odds published on 6 October 2026 (source). Implied chance is 1 divided by the decimal odds. Across the full field these figures add up to more than 100% because the bookmaker builds in a margin, so each player’s true chance is slightly lower.
Why Alcaraz
- He is the clear market favourite, priced more than twice as short as Zverev.
- As the No. 2 seed he sits in the opposite half to Zverev, so the two can only meet in the final.
- Zverev’s half also holds Novak Djokovic, who won the China Open in Beijing on 6 October and beat Zverev in the quarter-finals there.
How we got the number and how it is graded
We do not run our own tennis model. For tennis outrights our confidence figure is the implied chance from the pre-tournament outright price. The pick wins only if Alcaraz lifts the trophy. If he withdraws before playing a match, the pick is voided and left out of the record. Any other exit counts as a loss.
Our record so far
Every pick on this site is graded in public after the event, losses included. At the time of writing our record stands at 109 wins and 78 losses (58%) across 187 graded picks, including our Zverev pick for Beijing, which lost. You can check every pick on the results log on our homepage.
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