Full time: Champions League results and how our picks graded
Five of our nine Champions League picks won on Tuesday night, 56 percent. All three strong picks won: Manchester City beat AEK Athens 5-1, Roma beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0 and Dortmund won 2-1 at Sabah. The good picks split two and two, and both close calls lost. Our rule is that a pick wins only if the named side wins, so the Fenerbahce and Atletico draws count as losses.
| Fixture | Full time | Our pick | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague | 2-2 | Fenerbahce, 59% | LOSS (draw) |
| Sabah v Borussia Dortmund | 1-2 | Dortmund, 70% | WIN |
| PSG v Barcelona | 4-2 | Barcelona, 40% | LOSS |
| Liverpool v Villarreal | 4-3 | Liverpool, 65% | WIN |
| Manchester City v AEK Athens | 5-1 | Manchester City, 88% | WIN |
| Roma v Slovan Bratislava | 4-0 | Roma, 83% | WIN |
| Porto v PSV | 0-1 | Porto, 58% | LOSS |
| Napoli v Bodo/Glimt | 4-3 | Napoli, 58% | WIN |
| Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid | 1-1 | Atletico Madrid, 46% | LOSS (draw) |
| Nine picks | Strong 3 of 3, good 2 of 4, close 0 of 2 | 5W-4L, 56% |
What decided the night
- PSG 4-2 Barcelona. It was level at 1-1 and again at 2-2, with goals on 38, 55, 72 and 79 minutes. PSG then scored on 81 and 86 minutes. PSG had 14 shots on target to Barcelona’s 9. Our 40 percent lean on Barcelona lost.
- Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal. Villarreal were 2-0 up after 29 minutes. Liverpool scored on 36, 45, 65 and 68 minutes, and Villarreal pulled one back on 87. Liverpool had 22 shots to 12. That makes 28 goals in five European games between these two clubs this season.
- Fenerbahce 2-2 Slavia Prague. Fenerbahce were 2-0 up after 11 minutes. Slavia scored on 15 minutes and equalised in the 90th. Slavia still have not won a Champions League match in 22 games, qualifiers excluded, but the draw is a loss for our pick.
- Napoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt. Napoli scored in the first minute, and Bodo/Glimt equalised twice, on 27 and 63 minutes. Napoli went ahead on 75 and 88, and Bodo/Glimt scored again in the 90th.
- Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico Madrid. Stuttgart scored on 36 minutes and Atletico equalised two minutes after half-time. Atletico had a player sent off on 64 minutes. A draw, so our 46 percent close call lost.
- Porto 0-1 PSV. The only goal came on 57 minutes. Porto had 15 shots but only four on target.
- Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens, Roma 4-0 Slovan Bratislava and Sabah 1-2 Dortmund all went as picked.
On the draw-cover angles listed further down, three of the five double chance options won (Atletico or draw, Napoli or draw, Fenerbahce or draw) and two lost (Barcelona or draw, Porto or draw). The preview below is unchanged from before kick-off, so you can see exactly what we said.
Our Champions League predictions for matchday 3 cover all nine games on Tuesday 20 October 2026. Two kick off at 18:45 SAST and seven at 21:00 SAST. The strongest pick is Manchester City at home to AEK Athens, 88 percent, followed by Roma against Slovan Bratislava at 83 percent and Borussia Dortmund away at Sabah at 70 percent. The headline game, PSG v Barcelona, is the closest on the card: the market has the two sides level, and we lean Barcelona at 40 percent. Seven of the nine picks are 55 percent or higher, so this is a firmer card than last Tuesday.
Champions League predictions today: all nine picks
Kick-off times are South African time. Strong means 70 percent and above, good means 55 to 69 percent, and close means under 55 percent.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Venue | Our pick | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:45 | Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague | Sukru Saracoglu Stadium, Istanbul | Fenerbahce, 59% | Good |
| 18:45 | Sabah v Borussia Dortmund | Baku Olympic Stadium | Dortmund, 70% | Strong |
| 21:00 | PSG v Barcelona | Parc des Princes, Paris | Barcelona, 40% | Close |
| 21:00 | Liverpool v Villarreal | Anfield, Liverpool | Liverpool, 65% | Good |
| 21:00 | Manchester City v AEK Athens | Etihad Stadium, Manchester | Manchester City, 88% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Roma v Slovan Bratislava | Stadio Olimpico, Rome | Roma, 83% | Strong |
| 21:00 | Porto v PSV | Estadio do Dragao, Porto | Porto, 58% | Good |
| 21:00 | Napoli v Bodo/Glimt | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples | Napoli, 58% | Good |
| 21:00 | Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid | MHPArena, Stuttgart | Atletico Madrid, 46% | Close |
| Nine fixtures | Three strong, four good, two close |
See Wednesday’s Champions League odds at HollywoodbetsAdvertisement. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. We earn a commission if you sign up through this link, at no extra cost to you. Odds move, so check live prices before you bet.
How we set the numbers
Each figure is the bookmaker’s implied probability for the named side with the margin removed. We take the 1X2 prices, convert each to a percentage, then scale the three so they add up to 100. The source for each game is named in its section. Prices were checked on the morning of 20 October and will move before kick-off. A pick wins only if the named side wins, so a draw grades as a loss.
18:45 games: Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague and Sabah v Dortmund
Fenerbahce vs Slavia Prague prediction
Pick: Fenerbahce, 59 percent (good). DraftKings, as listed by Gainblers, prices Fenerbahce at 1.62, the draw at 4.20 and Slavia at 5.00. With the margin removed that is Fenerbahce 58.5 percent, the draw 22.6 percent and Slavia 19.0 percent.
- Form: Fenerbahce drew 1-1 with Roma on matchday 1, then lost 6-0 at Aston Villa last week. Slavia have lost both games, 3-2 at home to Lens and 2-0 at Sabah. Their run without a Champions League win, qualifiers excluded, is now 21 games.
- Team news: the previews we checked report no absentees for either side. Both played league games three days ago, so some rotation is likely.
A 6-0 defeat a week ago is the reason this is a good pick and not a strong one. Slavia’s winless run is the reason it is a pick at all.
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Pick: Borussia Dortmund, 70 percent (strong). DraftKings has Sabah at 7.50, the draw at 5.50 and Dortmund at 1.35. Margin removed, that is Dortmund 70.2 percent, the draw 17.2 percent and Sabah 12.6 percent.
- Form: Dortmund beat Villarreal 3-2 on matchday 1, then lost 1-0 at Bodo/Glimt last week. Sabah lost 4-0 at Manchester United and then beat Slavia Prague 2-0 at home, so they have three points, the same as Dortmund.
- Team news: Serhou Guirassy is expected to lead the line for Dortmund. We could not confirm any new absentees for either side.
Seventy percent is the bottom of our strong band. Sabah have already won at home in this competition, which is why the price is not shorter.
PSG vs Barcelona prediction
Pick: Barcelona, 40 percent (close). Prices listed by Sportsgambler are PSG 2.43, the draw 4.50 and Barcelona 2.40. With the margin removed that is Barcelona 39.7 percent, PSG 39.2 percent and the draw 21.2 percent. Other bookmakers have PSG very slightly ahead, so treat this as a coin flip: our lean is half a percentage point.
- Form: PSG won 4-2 at Manchester City last week. Barcelona won 4-1 at Galatasaray, a game we picked at 75 percent, after beating Feyenoord 5-1 on matchday 1. Both have six points.
- Team news: PSG rested seven of their expected starters at the weekend, so they should be fresher. Raphinha’s return for Barcelona from a thigh injury is still not confirmed, and Barcelona are reported to be short at the back.
The market expects goals at both ends. If you want a side, the price is close to even money either way. If you would rather cover the draw, see the angles further down.
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction
Pick: Liverpool, 65 percent (good). Paddy Power, as quoted by Racing Post, has Liverpool at 4/9, the draw at 15/4 and Villarreal at 5/1. Margin removed, that is Liverpool 64.7 percent, the draw 19.7 percent and Villarreal 15.6 percent.
- Form: Liverpool have six points after beating Atletico Madrid 2-1 and winning 6-3 at LASK. They came from behind to beat ten-man Brentford on Saturday. Villarreal have three points after losing 3-2 at Dortmund and beating Napoli 3-1.
- Team news: Liverpool are without Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Jeremie Frimpong and Dominik Szoboszlai. Villarreal are without Nicolas Pepe and Tajon Buchanan.
Every one of these two clubs’ four European games this season has had goals at both ends. We counted all 21 goals in our full Liverpool vs Villarreal preview.
Manchester City vs AEK Athens prediction
Pick: Manchester City, 88 percent (strong). bet365, as quoted by Racing Post, prices City at 1/12, the draw at 11/1 and AEK at 20/1. Margin removed, that is City 87.6 percent, the draw 7.9 percent and AEK 4.5 percent. It is the strongest pick on the card.
- Form: City won 2-0 at Porto on matchday 1, then lost 4-2 at home to PSG last week. AEK beat LASK 1-0 at home and lost 3-1 at Shakhtar.
- Team news: Antoine Semenyo is out for around eight weeks with a leg injury. Nico O’Reilly, Erling Haaland and Mateo Kovacic are doubts, and one report expects Haaland to be rested.
A rested Haaland matters more for goalscorer bets than for the result. City at home to AEK is still the safest call tonight, but 88 percent is not certain: last week our 85 percent pick, Bayern at Viking, drew.
Roma vs Slovan Bratislava prediction
Pick: Roma, 83 percent (strong). Prices listed by BetMines are Roma 1.14, the draw 8.50 and Slovan 15.00. That gives Roma 82.6 percent, the draw 11.1 percent and Slovan 6.3 percent.
- Form: Roma have one point. They drew 1-1 at Fenerbahce and lost 4-3 at home to Real Madrid last week. Slovan have lost both games, 6-1 at PSG and 3-0 at home to Stuttgart, conceding nine.
- Team news: we could not confirm absentees for either side from the previews we checked.
Porto vs PSV prediction
Pick: Porto, 58 percent (good). Melbet, as listed by MightyTips, prices Porto at 1.65, the draw at 4.40 and PSV at 4.54. Margin removed, that is Porto 57.5 percent, the draw 21.6 percent and PSV 20.9 percent.
- Form: neither side has won in the league phase. Porto lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City and 3-2 at Real Betis. PSV drew 1-1 with Shakhtar and lost 1-0 at RB Leipzig last week, a game we picked Leipzig to win.
- Team news: Jan Bednarek is back for Porto after suspension. PSV were missing eight players last week, and reports this week say several of their attackers are still out.
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt prediction
Pick: Napoli, 58 percent (good). Football Whispers lists Napoli at 8/13, the draw at 16/5 and Bodo/Glimt at 4/1. With the margin removed that is Napoli 58.3 percent, the draw 22.9 percent and Bodo/Glimt 18.8 percent.
- Form: Napoli have no points, after a 1-0 home defeat by Arsenal and a 3-1 loss at Villarreal last week. Bodo/Glimt lost 5-0 at Bayern Munich, then beat Borussia Dortmund 1-0 at home.
- Team news: Napoli report no new injury concerns. Ole Didrik Blomberg is out for Bodo/Glimt.
Napoli at home are the right side on paper, but they have lost both games and Bodo/Glimt have just beaten Dortmund. This sits at the bottom of our good band.
Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Pick: Atletico Madrid, 46 percent (close). The prices quoted by tips.gg are Stuttgart 3.25, the draw 3.78 and Atletico 2.08. Margin removed, that is Atletico 45.7 percent, Stuttgart 29.2 percent and the draw 25.1 percent.
- Form: Stuttgart have won both games, including 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava last week, and have conceded once. Atletico lost 2-1 at Liverpool on matchday 1, then beat Manchester United 2-0 last week, and have won six in a row in all competitions.
- Team news: no new absentees confirmed for either side. Deniz Undav and Chris Fuhrich are Stuttgart’s main threat on the break.
Atletico have the form, but they have lost their last five away games against Bundesliga clubs, and Stuttgart have more points. That is why this is a close call.
Betting angles for the closer games
Two of tonight’s picks are close calls, and three more sit just under 60 percent. If you would rather cover the draw, these are the double chance figures from the same margin-removed prices. They are not our graded picks, and they pay less. Read what double chance costs before you use them.
| Fixture | Our pick | Pick or draw |
|---|---|---|
| PSG v Barcelona | Barcelona, 40% | Barcelona or draw, about 61% |
| Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid | Atletico, 46% | Atletico or draw, about 71% |
| Porto v PSV | Porto, 58% | Porto or draw, about 79% |
| Napoli v Bodo/Glimt | Napoli, 58% | Napoli or draw, about 81% |
| Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague | Fenerbahce, 59% | Fenerbahce or draw, about 81% |
See Champions League odds at HollywoodbetsAdvertisement. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. We earn a commission if you sign up through this link, at no extra cost to you. Odds move, so check live prices before you bet.
Our record by confidence band
We publish a confidence figure with every pick and grade all of them in public, losses included. These figures update automatically from our graded results log.
| Band | Live record | Tonight’s picks in this band |
|---|---|---|
| Strong (70% and above) | 32W-7L (82%) | Manchester City, Roma, Dortmund |
| Good (55 to 69%) | 55W-33L (63%) | Liverpool, Fenerbahce, Porto, Napoli |
| Close (under 55%) | 44W-54L (45%) | Atletico Madrid, Barcelona |
| Overall | 131 wins from 225 graded picks (58%) | Nine picks |
Champions League predictions FAQs
How did your Champions League picks do on 20 October?
Five of nine won, 56 percent. Manchester City, Roma, Dortmund, Liverpool and Napoli won. Barcelona and Porto lost, and Fenerbahce and Atletico Madrid drew, which count as losses.
What time are the Champions League games tonight in South Africa?
Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague and Sabah v Borussia Dortmund kick off at 18:45 SAST. The other seven games, including PSG v Barcelona, Liverpool v Villarreal and Manchester City v AEK Athens, kick off at 21:00 SAST on Tuesday 20 October 2026.
What is your safest Champions League pick tonight?
Manchester City to beat AEK Athens, at 88 percent. It is the highest margin-removed probability on the card. No pick is guaranteed.
What is your PSG vs Barcelona prediction?
Barcelona to win, at 40 percent, which is a close call. PSG are 39 percent and the draw is about 21 percent, so the market sees it as level. Barcelona or the draw is about 61 percent.
What is your Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction?
Liverpool to win, at 65 percent. Villarreal are about 16 percent and the draw about 20 percent. Liverpool are missing five players, including Ekitike and Szoboszlai.
Which Champions League games are on Wednesday?
Matchday 3 finishes on Wednesday 21 October, including Como v Manchester United at 18:45 SAST and Bayern Munich v Arsenal.
Final verdict
Back the strong three with the most confidence: Manchester City, Roma and Dortmund. Liverpool, Fenerbahce, Porto and Napoli are good picks, but all four are under two in three. Treat PSG v Barcelona and Stuttgart v Atletico as leans. For the full fixture list and results as they come in, see UEFA’s league phase fixtures page.
Read next
Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.