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Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction: Allianz Arena, 21 October 2026, and a Head to Head That Is Narrowing

Carlson Dze Meh

October 14, 2026

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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE, LEAGUE PHASE MATCHDAY 3Fixture and results verified 14 October 2026Our public record: 119 wins from 203 graded picks (59%)

Bayern Munich v Arsenal kicks off at 21:00 South African time on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. It is a rematch of last season’s league phase game, which Arsenal won 3-1 in London. Arsenal arrive with two wins from two and no goals conceded in this season’s Champions League. Bayern have four points, after a 5-0 win and a 3-3 draw at Viking that cost them our strongest pick of matchday 2. We have not published a pick yet, because bookmakers have not priced the game. Our pick will be added here and on the predictions board once they do, at least an hour before kick-off, and it will be graded in public like every other.

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The fixture, double verified

UEFA’s official league phase list and the SportRadar data feed agree on date, kick-off and venue. UEFA lists the match at 21:00 Central European time on 21 October. Central Europe is still on summer time that week, so 21:00 there is 19:00 UTC and 21:00 in South Africa.

Item Detail
Competition UEFA Champions League, league phase, matchday 3
Date Wednesday 21 October 2026
Kick-off 21:00 SAST, 20:00 UK, 19:00 UTC
Venue Allianz Arena, Munich
Our pick Not yet published, waiting for a bookmaker price

Where both sides stand after two games

Both results for each club are taken from UEFA’s fixtures and results page and match the SportRadar feed.

The two clubs have reached their totals in opposite ways. Bayern have scored twice as many goals as Arsenal, but they have also conceded three in Norway, to a club playing its first league phase game. Arsenal have kept two clean sheets, one of them away in Naples.

The Viking game is worth reading closely. Viking led 2-0 after 38 minutes, Bayern scored three times between the 54th and 71st minutes to lead 3-2, then had a player sent off for a second yellow card, and Viking equalised in the 90th minute. Bayern had 28 shots to Viking’s 8. That is a side that creates a lot and still left the door open at the back.

Head to head: six meetings, one Arsenal win, and it was the last one

This is the original dataset on this page. We set the last six meetings between the two clubs side by side, with the running balance after each one.

Date Competition Result Winner Running balance
4 Nov 2015 Champions League group Bayern 5-1 Arsenal Bayern Bayern 1-0
15 Feb 2017 Round of 16, first leg Bayern 5-1 Arsenal Bayern Bayern 2-0
7 Mar 2017 Round of 16, second leg Arsenal 1-5 Bayern Bayern Bayern 3-0
9 Apr 2024 Quarter-final, first leg Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Draw Bayern 3-0, one draw
17 Apr 2024 Quarter-final, second leg Bayern 1-0 Arsenal Bayern Bayern 4-0, one draw
26 Nov 2025 League phase Arsenal 3-1 Bayern Arsenal Bayern 4-1, one draw
Six meetings Goals: Bayern 19, Arsenal 8 Bayern 4, draw 1, Arsenal 1
In Munich, the last three visits ended 5-1, 5-1 and 1-0 to Bayern

The headline is lopsided: Bayern have won four of the six and scored more than twice as many goals. The trend inside it is not. The scorelines have narrowed with each tie, from two 5-1 wins in 2015 and 2017, to a 2-2 and a 1-0 in 2024, to Arsenal’s 3-1 win last November. That game, with goals from Jurrien Timber, Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli after Lennart Karl had equalised, was Arsenal’s first win over Bayern in a decade and Bayern’s first defeat of that season in any competition.

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The honest reading is that the old meetings say very little about this one. The 2015 and 2017 sides share almost no players with these two squads. The two 2024 games and last November’s are the useful part, and across those three Arsenal have one win, one draw and one defeat. Arsenal have still not won in Munich in this run.

Domestic form

Arsenal are second in the Premier League on 15 points from six games, three behind Manchester City, after beating Leeds 2-1 at the Emirates on 10 October. We picked Arsenal at 66 percent for that game and it won. They have lost one league game of six.

We are not publishing a Bundesliga table line for Bayern here, because we have not verified this week’s standings against two sources. Bayern host RB Leipzig on Saturday 17 October, four days before this game, and that result will be on our board.

Team news, as reported before matchday 2

Our matchday 2 preview reported Bayern without Jamal Musiala, with a thigh injury, and Arsenal without William Saliba. Both were listed absent on 13 October. Neither has been confirmed for 21 October, and we will not guess. Bayern’s red card at Viking may also bring a suspension, which we will check once UEFA publishes it.

Our record on these two clubs this season

On matchday 2 we picked Arsenal at 79 percent against Lille, which won 3-0, and Bayern at 85 percent away at Viking, which drew 3-3 and counted as a loss under our rule that a pick wins only if the named side wins. That Bayern pick was the strongest on the whole card and the biggest miss of the night with Inter’s 4-3 defeat to Club Brugge. Our overall graded record is 119 wins from 203 graded picks (59%), and our strong band, the calls at 70 percent and above, stands at 27W-5L (84%). Every graded pick is listed on the results board.

The honest versionThis is the hardest game of the round to call and we are not going to pretend otherwise. Bayern at home have the stronger head-to-head record and more goals in them. Arsenal have the better defence this season and won the last meeting. A draw is a real outcome here, and under our grading a draw beats whichever side we pick. When a price arrives we will publish the number it gives, even if that number is under 50 percent.
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Predictions on this site are published for information only and are not betting advice. No pick is guaranteed, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes. 18+ only. Betting involves risk and you can lose money, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free and confidential help is available from the South African National Responsible Gambling Programme on 0800 006 008, 24 hours a day.

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