Our pick
Alexander Zverev to win the title
Close · 36%
Final: Tue 6 Oct 2026, not before 7:00pm Beijing time (13:00 SAST) · China National Tennis Centre, Beijing
Who will win the 2026 China Open (ATP Beijing)?
Our pick is Alexander Zverev to win the ATP 500 title in Beijing. He heads the outright betting at 2.75, which converts to a 36% chance, so this sits in our Close band. That is honest arithmetic: in a 32-player draw even the favourite is more likely not to win than to win. Defending champion Jannik Sinner is not in this year’s field.
Tournament facts
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Event | China Open, ATP 500, Beijing |
| Dates | 30 September to 6 October 2026 |
| Final | Tuesday 6 October, not before 7:00pm local time (13:00 SAST) |
| 2025 champion | Jannik Sinner, who beat Learner Tien 6-2, 6-2 in the final |
| Zverev’s first match | Round 1 against Cameron Norrie, 30 September |
Outright market before the event
| Player | Decimal odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | 2.75 | 36% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 8.50 | 12% |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 9.50 | 11% |
| Learner Tien | 11.00 | 9% |
| Alex de Minaur | 11.00 | 9% |
| Novak Djokovic | 12.00 | 8% |
| Jakub Mensik | 15.00 | 7% |
Implied chance is 1 divided by the decimal odds. The figures add up to more than 100% across the full field because the bookmaker builds in a margin, so the true figure for each player is slightly lower.
Why Zverev
- He is the clear market favourite, priced three times shorter than the next player.
- With Sinner absent, the field is led by Zverev, Djokovic, Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime, de Minaur and Cobolli.
- He is also a big favourite in his opening match against Norrie.
How we got the number and how it is graded
We do not run our own tennis model. For tennis outrights our confidence figure is the implied chance from the pre-tournament outright price. The pick wins only if Zverev lifts the trophy. If he withdraws before playing a match, the pick is voided. These are the first tennis picks we have published, so the tennis column of our record starts at zero.
Our record so far
Every pick on this site is graded in public after the event, losses included. At the time of writing our football record stands at 97 wins and 70 losses (58%) across 167 graded picks since 4 Aug 2026, and you can check every one of them on the results log on our homepage.
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