Our pick
San Antonio Spurs to win
Close · 54%
Tue 20 Oct 2026, 9:30pm ET (Wed 21 Oct, 03:30 SAST) · Frost Bank Center, San Antonio · NBC and Peacock
Who will win Spurs vs Thunder?
We are backing the San Antonio Spurs. The pre-season model makes them a 54% favourite, which puts this pick in our Close band. This is a rematch of last season’s Western Conference finals, which San Antonio won in seven games.
Game facts
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Game | Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs |
| Date and tip-off | Tue 20 Oct 2026, 9:30pm ET (Wed 21 Oct, 03:30 SAST) |
| Venue | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio |
| TV | NBC and Peacock, part of the NBA Tip-Off opening night tripleheader |
| How their 2025-26 season ended | Oklahoma City Thunder: No. 1 seed in the West, beaten 4-3 by San Antonio in the conference finals San Antonio Spurs: No. 2 seed in the West, won the West, lost the Finals 4-1 to New York |
Win probability
| Team | Win probability |
|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 54% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 46% |
Why we are backing the San Antonio Spurs
- San Antonio beat Oklahoma City 4-3 in the 2026 West finals, winning Game 7 111-103 in Oklahoma City.
- Oklahoma City finished 2025-26 as the West No. 1 seed and are no weaker on paper, which is why the edge is small.
- The model gives San Antonio 54% at home, a Close-band pick.
- San Antonio went on to lose the Finals 4-1 to the Knicks.
How we got the number
Our confidence figure for NBA games is the Sportradar pre-season win probability for the side we back, rounded to a whole number. Rosters change over the summer and we do not adjust the number for moves we have not verified. Bands: Strong 70% and above, Good 55 to 69%, Close under 55%.
How this pick is graded
Graded on the final score including overtime. If the game is postponed the pick is voided. This is the first NBA season we have published picks for, so the basketball column of our record starts at zero and every result will be shown.
Our record so far
Every pick on this site is graded in public after the event, losses included. At the time of writing our football record stands at 97 wins and 70 losses (58%) across 167 graded picks since 4 Aug 2026, and you can check every one of them on the results log on our homepage.
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