Our pick
Los Angeles Rams to win
Good · 59%
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00pm ET (19:00 SAST) · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Who will win Eagles vs Rams?
We are backing the Los Angeles Rams. The pre-game model makes them a 59% favourite, which puts this pick in our Good band. This is the one pick on our NFL board that goes against the records: the model rates the 1-3 Rams as 59% favourites in Philadelphia, and we follow the model rather than the standings.
Game facts
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Game | Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles |
| Kick-off | Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00pm ET (19:00 SAST) |
| Location | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania |
| Record entering Week 5 | Los Angeles Rams 1-3, Philadelphia Eagles 2-2 |
| Last result | Los Angeles Rams: lost 30-26 to the Denver Broncos Philadelphia Eagles: lost 27-7 to the Chicago Bears |
Win probability
| Team | Win probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 59% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 41% |
Why we are backing the Los Angeles Rams
- The Rams lost 30-26 in Denver in Week 4, a four-point road defeat to a team that is 3-1.
- Philadelphia were beaten 27-7 in Chicago on Monday night.
- The Rams beat the New York Giants 28-6 in Week 3, their one win to date.
- Because it runs against the records and sits under 60%, we rate it Good, not Strong.
How we got the number
Our confidence figure for NFL games is the Sportradar pre-game win probability for the side we back, rounded to a whole number. We do not inflate it and we do not pick against it. We place it in our three published bands: Strong is 70% and above, Good is 55 to 69%, and Close is under 55%.
How this pick is graded
The pick is graded on the final result including overtime. A tie counts as a loss, the same way a draw counts as a loss on our football picks. If the game is postponed past the listed week the pick is voided and does not touch the record. This is the first NFL season we have published picks for, so the NFL column of our record starts at zero.
Our record so far
Every pick on this site is graded in public after the event, losses included. At the time of writing our football record stands at 97 wins and 70 losses (58%) across 167 graded picks since 4 Aug 2026, and you can check every one of them on the results log on our homepage.
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