Our pick
Buffalo Bills to win
Strong · 73%
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00pm ET (19:00 SAST) · Buffalo, New York
Who will win Bills vs Patriots?
We are backing the Buffalo Bills. The pre-game model makes them a 73% favourite, which puts this pick in our Strong band. Buffalo are unbeaten at 4-0 and at home, New England are 1-3 and were beaten 35-6 in Jacksonville last week.
Game facts
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Game | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills |
| Kick-off | Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00pm ET (19:00 SAST) |
| Location | Buffalo, New York |
| Record entering Week 5 | New England Patriots 1-3, Buffalo Bills 4-0 |
| Last result | New England Patriots: lost 35-6 to the Jacksonville Jaguars Buffalo Bills: beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 |
Win probability
| Team | Win probability |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 73% |
| New England Patriots | 27% |
Why we are backing the Buffalo Bills
- The model makes Buffalo a 73% favourite, the highest of our three Week 5 NFL picks and a Strong-band call.
- Buffalo beat the Chargers 24-16 in Week 4 to stay perfect.
- New England managed six points in Week 4.
- Home field in a division game adds to an edge that is already the widest of our three NFL picks this week.
How we got the number
Our confidence figure for NFL games is the Sportradar pre-game win probability for the side we back, rounded to a whole number. We do not inflate it and we do not pick against it. We place it in our three published bands: Strong is 70% and above, Good is 55 to 69%, and Close is under 55%.
How this pick is graded
The pick is graded on the final result including overtime. A tie counts as a loss, the same way a draw counts as a loss on our football picks. If the game is postponed past the listed week the pick is voided and does not touch the record. This is the first NFL season we have published picks for, so the NFL column of our record starts at zero.
Our record so far
Every pick on this site is graded in public after the event, losses included. At the time of writing our football record stands at 97 wins and 70 losses (58%) across 167 graded picks since 4 Aug 2026, and you can check every one of them on the results log on our homepage.
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