Our pick
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Good · 57%
Thu 1 Oct 2026, 8:15pm ET (Fri 2 Oct, 02:15 SAST) · Cleveland, Ohio
Who will win Steelers vs Browns?
We are backing the Pittsburgh Steelers. The pre-game model makes them a 57% favourite, which puts this pick in our Good band. Both sides are 3-1 and both won by three points last weekend, so the model separates them on underlying strength rather than record, and it leans Pittsburgh despite the road trip.
Game facts
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Game | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns |
| Kick-off | Thu 1 Oct 2026, 8:15pm ET (Fri 2 Oct, 02:15 SAST) |
| Location | Cleveland, Ohio |
| Record entering Week 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1, Cleveland Browns 3-1 |
| Last result | Pittsburgh Steelers: beat the Cincinnati Bengals 30-27 Cleveland Browns: beat the Carolina Panthers 21-18 |
Win probability
| Team | Win probability |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 57% |
| Cleveland Browns | 43% |
Why we are backing the Pittsburgh Steelers
- The model gives Pittsburgh a 57% win probability, a clear but not overwhelming edge.
- Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 30-27 in Week 4, scoring 30 in a division game.
- Cleveland also won in Week 4, 21-18 over Carolina, which is why this sits in our Good band and not Strong.
- Short-week Thursday games are volatile, one more reason we are not calling this Strong.
How we got the number
Our confidence figure for NFL games is the Sportradar pre-game win probability for the side we back, rounded to a whole number. We do not inflate it and we do not pick against it. We place it in our three published bands: Strong is 70% and above, Good is 55 to 69%, and Close is under 55%.
How this pick is graded
The pick is graded on the final result including overtime. A tie counts as a loss, the same way a draw counts as a loss on our football picks. If the game is postponed past the listed week the pick is voided and does not touch the record. This is the first NFL season we have published picks for, so the NFL column of our record starts at zero.
Our record so far
Every pick on this site is graded in public after the event, losses included. At the time of writing our football record stands at 97 wins and 70 losses (58%) across 167 graded picks since 4 Aug 2026, and you can check every one of them on the results log on our homepage.
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