Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction — Premier League Opening Weekend, Sun 23 Aug 2026
Who will win Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our model makes Liverpool the most likely single outcome at 49% — favourites, but short of even money against the field. Whether you searched for a Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction or a Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction, the reading is the same: the visitors’ squad quality and their long unbeaten run in this fixture outweigh home advantage, but only just. St James’ Park under a full Sunday crowd is one of the loudest equalisers in English football, and Newcastle’s front-foot home profile drags elite visitors into matches they do not control.
The draw carries a heavy share of the remaining probability, and under our grading a draw counts as a loss for this pick. That is the real risk: two new-era teams feeling each other out and ending level.
Match facts
- Competition: Premier League 2026/27, opening weekend
- Kickoff: Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:30 GMT / 16:30 BST
- Venue: St James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
- TV: Sky Sports (UK); NBC Sports / Peacock (US)
- Storyline: first competitive match for both new managers — Matthias Jaissle (Newcastle) and Andoni Iraola (Liverpool)
Team news and key absences
Newcastle United
- Out: Joelinton (groin, expected out for a couple of weeks)
- Doubtful: Valentino Livramento (calf), Fabian Schar (fitness)
- Context: Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon were all sold this summer for a combined fee north of £240m, so a largely new spine debuts: goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek (£26m, Braga), record signing Bazoumana Toure (£42.8m winger) and Aladji Bamba (≈£35m, Monaco) in midfield
Liverpool
- Out: Hugo Ekitike (Achilles), Conor Bradley (knee), Giovanni Leoni (knee), Joe Gomez (muscle, pre-season)
- Uncertain: Alexis Mac Allister only just returning; Curtis Jones on the verge of a ≈£30m move to Inter Milan
- Context: Ronald Araujo is expected to partner Virgil van Dijk in central defence, with Alexander Isak leading the line on his first return to Tyneside since his British-record £125m transfer in summer 2025
Head-to-head record
| Head-to-head | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total meetings (since 1893) | 192 — Liverpool 96 wins, Newcastle 51, 45 draws |
| Last 19 Premier League meetings | Liverpool unbeaten (14 wins, 5 draws) |
| Most recent league meeting | Liverpool 4–1 (Anfield, Jan 2026) |
| Last meeting at St James’ Park | Liverpool won 3–2 (Aug 2025) |
| Newcastle’s last home league win in this fixture | Nearly 11 years ago |
| Newcastle’s consolation | 2–1 win over Liverpool in the 2025 Carabao Cup final |
Form guide
| Form marker | Newcastle | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 league finish | 12th — 49 points | 5th — 60 points |
| Last league match | 0–2 loss at Fulham | Faced Brentford on the final day |
| Pre-season close | Winless in final three (drew 1–1 with Strasbourg) | Beat Como 2–0, back-to-back clean sheets |
| Opening-day trends | Unbeaten in last four PL matchday-one fixtures | Unbeaten in last 13 season openers |
Key players to watch
Alexander Isak (Liverpool) is the headline. The Swede scored 23 Premier League goals in his final full Newcastle season before the 2025 saga that ended in a record move, and his link-up with Florian Wirtz looked sharp through pre-season. Cody Gakpo arrives with a goal and an assist in the Como friendly, while Ryan Gravenberch anchors the midfield Iraola’s press is built around.
For Newcastle, William Osula earned the striker’s role with a strong end to last season and the only goal against Strasbourg. The bigger question is whether debutants Toure and Bamba can replace the output of the departed midfield: Iraola’s pressing scheme is designed to force turnovers exactly where Bamba will operate.
What 49% means in our tiers
A Close call under 55% is a lean, not a conviction: over a season these picks land only slightly more often than they miss. We publish them anyway — a record built only on comfortable favourites would say nothing about matches like this one. Iraola has never lost to Newcastle as a Premier League manager, and Liverpool’s 19-match unbeaten run in the fixture is the single strongest signal in the model’s input; a first competitive match under two brand-new coaching staffs is the strongest argument against certainty.
More picks for this weekend
- Man City vs Bournemouth prediction (Sun 13:00 GMT)
- Elche vs Barcelona prediction (Sun 19:30 GMT)
- Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction (Sun)
- Frosinone vs Juventus prediction (Sun 16:30 GMT)
- Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction (Sun 18:45 GMT)
- Fulham vs Chelsea prediction (Mon 19:00 GMT)
- All of today’s predictions · Bet of the day · Correct score predictions